Bainbridge High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 (fleet 2.57) | 87 of 231 | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 40–30 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 9–0 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 14–13 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 3 | 17–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 40–30 against 38.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Silverdale Team Race Gold | skipper | 2.02 | 5.02 | 6–0 | 5.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 63% |
| 2026-04-11 | NWISA TR Backup Qualifier | skipper | 2.01 | 5.01 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 74% |
| 2025-05-16 | ISSA Baker Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.02 | 0.97 | 2–13 | 3.6 | −1.05 | 0.9 | 92% |
| 2025-04-26 | NWISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 2.00 | 5.00 | 6–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 32% |
| 2025-04-12 | NWISA Gold Team Race Quals | skipper | 1.85 | 4.85 | 6–0 | 5.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 44% |
| 2024-05-17 | 2024 ISSA Baker Team Race National Championship | skipper | 1.59 | 1.28 | 2–13 | 2.4 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2024-04-27 | NWISA Team Race Championships | skipper | 1.53 | 2.43 | 9–2 | 7.8 | +0.90 | 0.6 | 32% |
| 2024-04-20 | Bellingham Gold Team Race Quals | skipper | 1.50 | 0.77 | 6–2 | 6.6 | −0.72 | 0.3 | 87% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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