| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 3–0 |
| 2 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 2–1 |
| 3 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 1–2 |
| 4 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 13,107 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 5 of 6 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.299 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bainbridge High School Spartans | 1 | 5.94 school +0.13 | Cyrus Yan / Emma Jackson 1.72 Nelson Dorsey / Beckett Ladenburg 2.08 Stone Dewey / Carson Domansky 2.00 | 91% | 3–0 (100%) | +0.3 |
| 2 | Olympia High School Bears | 2 | 3.84 | Alan Timms / Siena Kiehl 1.62 Simone Reck / Ingrid Christensen Cameron Leclair / Cate Griffith 0.81 | 57% | 2–1 (67%) | +0.3 |
| 3 | Capital High School Cougars | 4 | 1.96 | Adi Vannice / Andre Echeverri 0.54 Siri Biswas / Clare Hopkins 0.73 Alden Visser / Seher Kasmani | 20% | 1–2 (33%) | +0.4 |
| 4 | Gig Harbor High School Tides | 3 | 2.59 school −0.07 | Alex Bluth / Aiden Spiker Bailey Rainbolt / Skylar Smith 1.16 Tru Jackson / Cameron Siegert 0.81 | 32% | 0–3 (0%) | −1.0 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bainbridge High School | 5.94 | 8.94 | 3–0 | 2.7 | ≥+3.00 | 0.4 | 75% |
| 3 | Capital High School | 1.96 | 2.97 | 1–2 | 0.6 | +1.01 | 0.2 | 52% |
| 2 | Olympia High School | 3.84 | 4.66 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.82 | 0.1 | 65% |
| 4 | Gig Harbor High School | 2.59 | -0.41 | 0–3 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adi Vannice | Capital High School | 0.54 | 1.55 | 1–2 | 0.6 | +1.01 | 0.2 | 52% |
| Siri Biswas | Capital High School | 0.73 | 1.74 | 1–2 | 0.6 | +1.01 | 0.2 | 52% |
| Alden Visser | Capital High School | 0.64 | 1.65 | 1–2 | 0.6 | +1.01 | 0.2 | 52% |
| Alan Timms | Olympia High School | 1.62 | 2.44 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.82 | 0.1 | 65% |
| Simone Reck | Olympia High School | 1.39 | 2.21 | 2–1 | 1.7 | +0.82 | 0.1 | 65% |
| Alex Bluth | Gig Harbor High School | 0.63 | -2.37 | 0–3 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| Bailey Rainbolt | Gig Harbor High School | 1.16 | -1.84 | 0–3 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| Tru Jackson | Gig Harbor High School | 0.81 | -2.19 | 0–3 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bainbridge High School | Gig Harbor High School | 93% | |
| 1 | 2 | Olympia High School | Capital High School | 81% | |
| 1 | 3 | Bainbridge High School | Capital High School | 96% | |
| 1 | 4 | Olympia High School | Gig Harbor High School | 73% | |
| 1 | 5 | Bainbridge High School | Olympia High School | 83% | |
| 1 | 6 | Capital High School | Gig Harbor High School | 38% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cougars | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Cougars | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Tides | 1-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | Cyrus Yan '26 Nelson Dorsey '26 Stone Dewey '26 |
Emma Jackson '26 Beckett Ladenburg '27 Carson Domansky '26 |
|
Olympia High School | Bears | Alan Timms '26 Cameron Leclair '27 Simone Reck '27 |
Siena Kiehl '27 Cate Griffith '27 Ingrid Christensen '27 |
|
Capital High School | Cougars | Adi Vannice '28 Alden Visser '27 Siri Biswas '28 |
Andre Echeverri '28 Seher Kasmani '27 Clare Hopkins '28 |
|
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | Alex Bluth '29 Bailey Rainbolt '26 Tru Jackson '27 |
Aiden Spiker '28 Skylar Smith '29 Cameron Siegert '27 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
