| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 10–0 |
| 2 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans | 8–2 |
| 3 |  |
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks | 5–5 |
| 4 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners | 4–6 |
| 5 |  |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | 3–7 |
| 6 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,792 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 26 of 30 matches (87%) with a log-loss of 0.279 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.41 ± 0.38: an orderly event, more orderly than 71% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympia High School | 4.80 | 7.80 | 10–0 | 8.0 | ≥+3.00 | 3.3 | 7% |
| 4 | Sehome High School | 1.43 | 2.24 | 4–6 | 3.0 | +0.81 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 2 | Bainbridge High School | 4.91 | 4.59 | 8–2 | 8.3 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 3 | Port Townsend High School | 3.07 | 2.57 | 5–5 | 5.6 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 5 | Anacortes High School | 2.26 | 1.35 | 3–7 | 4.1 | −0.90 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 6 | Oak Harbor High School | 0.06 | -2.94 | 0–10 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Turloff | Bainbridge High School | 1.61 | 1.29 | 8–2 | 8.3 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 78% |
| Allison Lehmann | Anacortes High School | 0.76 | 0.20 | 3–5 | 3.5 | −0.56 | 0.2 | 83% |
| Alexander Turloff | Bainbridge High School | 1.66 | 1.07 | 4–2 | 4.5 | −0.59 | 0.2 | 85% |
| Aeden Peterson | Anacortes High School | 0.62 | -0.28 | 3–7 | 4.1 | −0.90 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Will Peters | Anacortes High School | 0.93 | -0.22 | 2–6 | 2.9 | −1.14 | 0.5 | 93% |
| Hannah Ellis | Oak Harbor High School | 0.41 | -2.59 | 0–10 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Dominic Schinning | Oak Harbor High School | -0.12 | -3.12 | 0–10 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Grant Nienhuis | Oak Harbor High School | -0.26 | -3.26 | 0–10 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Redhawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Mariners | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Redhawks | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Redhawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-5-6 DNF,DNF |
| 17 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 1-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Mariners | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Seahawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildcats | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Spartans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 28 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wildcats | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Redhawks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 1-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Bears | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
