ISSA Baker Team Race Championship

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 12,659 team race matches sailed before 2025-05-16, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 74 of 102 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.514 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.05 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 37% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	1	9.68 school +0.36	Ian Nyenhuis / Skye Terrell 3.21 Wyatt Kelly / Julia Stewart 2.91 Anton Schmid / Olive Kanemasu 3.13	77%	15–2 (88%)	+2.0
2	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	4	8.78	Tate Christopher / Madison Mansour 3.15 Noah Stapleton / Hannah Crompton 2.98 Brady Kennedy / Fiona Barbeito 2.62	61%	12–5 (71%)	+1.7
3	Antilles School Hurricanes	8	7.92 school +0.31	Robert Richards / Rena Yu 2.41 Tanner Krygsveld / Dominika Skoda 2.96 Cobia Fagan / Halina Diehl 2.18 5–4 Alejo Diblasi / Halina Diehl 2.08 6–2	44%	11–6 (65%)	+3.5
4	St. George's School Dragons	5	8.79 school +0.49	Pearse Dowd / Phoebe Fogarty 2.90 Lucca Antonietti / Avery Peterson 2.41 Gil Hackel / Kate Myles 2.96	61%	9–8 (53%)	−1.3
5	Christchurch School Seahorses	3	8.60 school +0.26	Bo Angus / Adelaide Matzky 2.98 Wylder Smith / Malia Deane 2.96 Madeline Janzen / Bennett Moss 2.33 8–4 Elliott Lipp / Suzie Nguyen 2.46 3–2	61%	11–6 (65%)	+0.6
6	Severn School Admirals	2	9.27 school +0.08	Annie Sitzmann / Annabelle Ulak 3.15 Alex Baker / Charlotte Macdonald 2.99 Harrison Szot / Ana Fishback 3.02	74%	10–7 (59%)	−2.5
7	MAST Academy Makos	9	7.50 school +0.53	Davide Bazzoni / Theodore Mccormick 2.70 Carlos Beckmann / Julia Gil 2.23 6–9 Oliver Holt / Maryna Downey 1.99 7–6 Minx Anthony / Andrea Bolz 2.04 3–3	40%	8–9 (47%)	+1.2
8	Tabor Academy Seawolves	7	7.91 school +0.44	Peter Herlihy / Lilly Menyhart 2.83 6–9 Sander Skaane / Elinor Grant 2.03 6–9 Jack Spillane / Leo Lothian 2.53 4–7 Jack Spillane / Charlotte Eberly 2.41 3–3 Peter Herlihy / Theo Binder 3.09 1–1 Jeremy Bullock / Elinor Grant 1.98 1–1	48%	7–10 (41%)	−1.2
9	Lake Forest High School Scouts	6	7.45 school +0.38	Owen Kohut / Maddie Rode 2.75 Mason Keane / Jackson Schwartz 2.26 Keegan Chatburn / Vivienne Kelly 2.01	57%	7–10 (41%)	−2.6
10	Clear Lake High School Falcons Green	12	5.17 school +0.08	Sydney Small / Patrick Mcnamara 1.90 Casey Small / Andrew Hibbetts 1.17 5–9 Jack Cronan / James Gonzalez 1.90 0–8 Jack Cronan / Gabrielle Golemi 1.90 5–3 Casey Small / Gabrielle Golemi 1.22 0–2 Casey Small / James Gonzalez 1.22 0–1 Jack Cronan / Andrew Hibbetts 1.93 0–1	19%	5–12 (29%)	+1.7
11	Jones College Prep Eagles	10	6.34	Gavin Eskilson / Jack Eskilson 1.71 Grace Renz / Duke Diep 2.33 Nissa Berman / Orla Gilroy 2.26	38%	5–12 (29%)	−1.5
12	Bainbridge High School Spartans	11	5.28 school +0.19	Nelson Dorsey / Beckett Ladenburg 2.02 2–13 Joseph Tappen / Carson Domansky 1.45 2–10 Stone Dewey / Holden Goodham 1.75 1–11 Cyrus Yan / Tatum Mcgee 1.42 1–11	21%	2–15 (12%)	−1.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Antilles School	7.92	9.23	11–6	7.5	+1.31	2.6	5%
1	Point Loma High School	9.68	10.81	15–2	13.0	+1.13	1.2	19%
10	Clear Lake High School	5.17	6.03	5–12	3.3	+0.86	0.9	20%
2	Mater Dei High School	8.78	9.44	12–5	10.3	+0.66	0.6	26%
7	MAST Academy	7.50	7.93	8–9	6.8	+0.44	0.3	35%
5	Christchurch School	8.60	8.84	11–6	10.4	+0.24	0.1	48%
8	Tabor Academy	7.91	7.46	7–10	8.2	−0.45	0.3	82%
4	St. George's School	8.79	8.30	9–8	10.3	−0.48	0.4	84%
11	Jones College Prep	6.34	5.65	5–12	6.5	−0.69	0.6	88%
6	Severn School	9.27	8.30	10–7	12.5	−0.97	1.4	96%
12	Bainbridge High School	5.28	4.20	2–15	3.6	−1.08	0.9	93%
9	Lake Forest High School	7.45	6.36	7–10	9.6	−1.09	1.6	96%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Alejo Diblasi	Antilles School	2.08	3.86	6–2	3.8	+1.77	2.2	9%
Anton Schmid	Point Loma High School	3.13	4.26	15–2	13.0	+1.13	1.2	19%
Cobia Fagan	Antilles School	2.18	3.12	5–4	3.7	+0.94	0.7	26%
Casey Small	Clear Lake High School	1.17	2.03	5–12	3.3	+0.86	0.9	20%
Sydney Small	Clear Lake High School	1.90	2.75	5–12	3.3	+0.86	0.9	20%
Madeline Janzen	Christchurch School	2.33	2.78	8–4	7.1	+0.45	0.2	42%
Wylder Smith	Christchurch School	2.96	3.20	11–6	10.4	+0.24	0.1	48%
Sander Skaane	Tabor Academy	2.03	1.71	6–9	6.8	−0.32	0.1	76%
Jack Spillane	Tabor Academy	2.53	2.08	7–10	8.2	−0.45	0.3	82%
Gil Hackel	St. George's School	2.96	2.47	9–8	10.3	−0.48	0.4	84%
Annie Sitzmann	Severn School	3.15	2.18	10–7	12.5	−0.97	1.4	96%
Alex Baker	Severn School	2.99	2.03	10–7	12.5	−0.97	1.4	96%
Harrison Szot	Severn School	3.02	2.06	10–7	12.5	−0.97	1.4	96%
Mason Keane	Lake Forest High School	2.26	1.17	7–10	9.6	−1.09	1.6	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.		Pointers	4-5-6
2		Monarchs	1-2-3	def.		Makos	4-5-6
3		Dragons	1-2-5	def.		Eagles	3-4-6
4		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Falcons Green	4-5-6
5		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Spartans	4-5-6
6		Scouts	2-3-5	def.		Admirals	1-4-6
7		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Hurricanes	3-4-5
8		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Makos	4-5-6
9		Pointers	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
10		Monarchs	1-3-4	def.		Falcons Green	2-5-6
11		Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.		Spartans	4-5-6
12		Makos	1-2-6	def.		Scouts	3-4-5
13		Dragons	1-2-5	def.		Seahorses	3-4-6
14		Admirals	2-3-5	def.		Seawolves	1-4-6
15		Pointers	1-2-4	def.		Spartans	3-5-6
16		Monarchs	2-3-4	def.		Scouts	1-5-6
17		Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.		Eagles	3-5-6
18		Makos	1-2-4	def.		Falcons Green	3-5-6
19		Pointers	1-2-3	def.		Seahorses	4-5-6
20		Admirals	1-3-4	def.		Monarchs	2-5-6
21		Dragons	1-2-3	def.		Spartans	4-5-6
22		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Scouts	4-5-6
23		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
24		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Falcons Green	4-5-6
25		Pointers	1-2-3	def.		Dragons	4-5-6
26		Monarchs	2-3-5	def.		Seawolves	1-4-6
27		Seahorses	1-2-5	def.		Hurricanes	3-4-6
28		Admirals	2-3-5	def.		Makos	1-4-6
29		Spartans	1-4-5	def.		Eagles	2-3-6
30		Scouts	1-2-4	def.		Falcons Green	3-5-6
31		Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.		Seawolves	3-4-6
32		Monarchs	1-2-5	def.		Pointers	3-4-6
33		Dragons	1-3-5	def.		Makos	2-4-6
34		Seahorses	2-3-4	def.		Admirals	1-5-6
35		Falcons Green	2-3-5	def.		Eagles	1-4-6
36		Scouts	1-2-3	def.		Spartans	4-5-6
37		Pointers	1-2-4	def.		Seawolves	3-5-6
38		Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.		Makos	3-5-6
39		Monarchs	1-2-6	def.		Seahorses	3-4-5
40		Dragons	1-2-5	def.		Scouts	3-4-6
41		Falcons Green	1-2-5	def.		Spartans	3-4-6
42		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
43		Hurricanes	1-3-6	def.		Monarchs	2-4-5
44		Makos	1-3-4	def.		Seahorses	2-5-6
45		Pointers	1-3-4	def.		Scouts	2-5-6
46		Dragons	1-2-4	def.		Falcons Green	3-5-6
47		Seawolves	1-2-6	def.		Eagles	3-4-5
48		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Spartans	4-5-6
49		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Scouts	4-5-6
50		Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.		Falcons Green	4-5-6
51		Monarchs	1-2-4	def.		Dragons	3-5-6
52		Pointers	1-2-3	def.		Makos	4-5-6
53		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Spartans	3-4-6
54		Eagles	1-4-5	def.		Scouts	2-3-6
55		Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.		Admirals	3-5-6
56		Seahorses	1-2-4	def.		Falcons Green	3-5-6
57		Makos	1-2-5	def.		Spartans	3-4-6
58		Monarchs	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
59		Seawolves	2-3-4	def.		Dragons	1-5-6
60		Pointers	1-2-5	def.		Admirals	3-4-6
61		Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.		Scouts	4-5-6
62		Monarchs	1-2-3	def.		Spartans	4-5-6
63		Makos	1-4-5	def.		Eagles	2-3-6
64		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Seahorses	3-4-6
65		Pointers	1-2-3	def.		Falcons Green	4-5-6
66		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Admirals	3-4-5
67		Pointers	1-2-6	def.		Monarchs	3-4-5
68		Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.		Dragons	1-5-6
69		Makos	1-2-4	def.		Seawolves	3-5-6
70		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Scouts	4-5-6
71		Monarchs	1-2-5	def.		Dragons	3-4-6
72		Pointers	1-2-5	def.		Hurricanes	3-4-6
73		Admirals	1-2-4	def.		Seahorses	3-5-6
74		Falcons Green	1-2-6	def.		Spartans	3-4-5
75		Pointers	1-2-5	def.		Dragons	3-4-6
76		Monarchs	1-3-5	def.		Hurricanes	2-4-6
77		Admirals	1-2-6	def.		Seawolves	3-4-5
78		Scouts	1-2-4	def.		Spartans	3-5-6
79		Seahorses	1-2-6	def.		Makos	3-4-5
80		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Falcons Green	3-4-6
81		Seahorses	1-2-5	def.		Seawolves	3-4-6
82		Scouts	1-2-6	def.		Falcons Green	3-4-5
83		Makos	1-2-6	def.		Admirals	3-4-5
84		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Spartans	3-4-5
85		Seahorses	2-3-5	def.		Seawolves	1-4-6
86		Admirals	1-2-5	def.		Makos	3-4-6
87		Falcons Green	1-2-4	def.		Eagles	3-5-6
88		Spartans	1-2-4	def.		Scouts	3-5-6
89		Seahorses	1-2-5	def.		Makos	3-4-6
90		Admirals	2-3-4	def.		Seawolves	1-5-6
91		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Spartans	4-5-6
92		Scouts	1-2-5	def.		Falcons Green	3-4-6
93		Makos	2-3-4	def.		Seawolves	1-5-6
94		Seahorses	1-2-6	def.		Admirals	3-4-5
95		Falcons Green	2-3-5	def.		Spartans	1-4-6
96		Scouts	1-2-6	def.		Eagles	3-4-5
97		Monarchs	1-3-4	def.		Hurricanes	2-5-6
98		Pointers	1-2-6	def.		Dragons	3-4-5
99		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Monarchs	3-4-5
100		Pointers	1-2-5	def.		Hurricanes	3-4-6
101		Hurricanes	2-3-4	def.		Dragons	1-5-6
102		Pointers	2-3-4	def.		Monarchs	1-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Point Loma High School	Pointers	Anton Schmid '26 Ian Nyenhuis '25 Wyatt Kelly '26	Olive Kanemasu '27 Skye Terrell '25 Julia Stewart '26
	Mater Dei High School	Monarchs	Brady Kennedy '25 Noah Stapleton '25 Tate Christopher '25	Fiona Barbeito '26 Hannah Crompton '26 Madison Mansour '26
	Antilles School	Hurricanes	Alejo Diblasi '25 Cobia Fagan '28 Robert Richards '25 Tanner Krygsveld '25	Halina Diehl '26 Rena Yu '27 Dominika Skoda '27
	St. George's School	Dragons	Gil Hackel '26 Lucca Antonietti '25 Pearse Dowd '25	Kate Myles '25 Avery Peterson '26 Phoebe Fogarty '25
	Christchurch School	Seahorses	Bo Angus '25 Elliott Lipp '26 Madeline Janzen '25 Wylder Smith '27	Adelaide Matzky '25 Suzie Nguyen '25 Bennett Moss '26 Malia Deane '25
	Severn School	Admirals	Alex Baker '26 Annie Sitzmann '26 Harrison Szot '27	Charlotte Macdonald '26 Annabelle Ulak '26 Ana Fishback '27
	MAST Academy	Makos	Carlos Beckmann '25 Davide Bazzoni '26 Minx Anthony '26 Oliver Holt '26	Julia Gil '26 Theodore Mccormick '26 Andrea Bolz '27 Maryna Downey '27
	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Jack Spillane '25 Jeremy Bullock '25 Peter Herlihy '25 Sander Skaane '27	Charlotte Eberly '27 Leo Lothian '28 Elinor Grant '27 Theo Binder '25 Lilly Menyhart '28
	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	Keegan Chatburn '25 Mason Keane '28 Owen Kohut '25	Vivienne Kelly '27 Jackson Schwartz '25 Maddie Rode '26
	Clear Lake High School	Falcons Green	Casey Small '28 Jack Cronan '25 Sydney Small '28	James Gonzalez '26 Gabrielle Golemi '26 Andrew Hibbetts '25 Patrick Mcnamara '28
	Jones College Prep	Eagles	Gavin Eskilson '25 Grace Renz '26 Nissa Berman '26	Jack Eskilson '28 Duke Diep '27 Orla Gilroy '25
	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	Cyrus Yan '26 Joseph Tappen '25 Nelson Dorsey '26 Stone Dewey '26	Tatum Mcgee '28 Carson Domansky '26 Beckett Ladenburg '27 Holden Goodham '26