Lake Forest High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.62 (fleet 2.66) | 88 of 231 | −0.03 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–27 (61%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 17–16 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 25–11 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (69 matches) the record is 42–27 against 46.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | skipper | 1.88 | 1.15 | 13–15 | 16.0 | −0.73 | 1.2 | 93% |
| 2026-04-11 | MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.91 | 2.63 | 4–1 | 3.6 | +0.71 | 0.2 | 55% |
| 2025-05-16 | ISSA Baker Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.26 | 1.17 | 7–10 | 9.6 | −1.09 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2025-04-26 | GPYC - MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.21 | 2.69 | 11–1 | 10.6 | +0.48 | 0.1 | 59% |
| 2025-04-12 | 2025 MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 2.09 | 5.09 | 7–0 | 6.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA SW Mallory Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.1 | 2.59 |
| MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 5 | 80% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier 2026 | Skipper | A | 17 | 6.5 | 2.48 |
| 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | Skipper | TR | 28 | 46% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA SW Great Lakes Qualifier | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.9 | 3.13 |
| MISSA Great Lakes Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.2 | 3.08 |
| ISSA 2025 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 13 | 10.0 | 2.97 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| ISSA Fleet Nationals (Mallory Trophy) | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.2 | 1.31 |
| ISSA Baker Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 17 | 41% | — |
| GPYC - MISSA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| 2025 MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 7 | 100% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| 2024 Great Lakes Championships | Skipper | B | 4 | 3.2 | 3.33 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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