| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Jones College Prep | Eagles | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | Maroons | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Evanston Township HS | Wildkits | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,963 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 27 of 28 matches (96%) with a log-loss of 0.241 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.72 ± 0.42: an orderly event, more orderly than 93% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lake Forest High School | 7.17 | 10.17 | 7–0 | 6.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| 3 | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 4.36 | 5.67 | 5–2 | 3.9 | +1.31 | 0.8 | 29% |
| 2 | Jones College Prep | 5.97 | 6.83 | 6–1 | 5.5 | +0.86 | 0.2 | 54% |
| 4 | New Trier HS | 3.93 | 4.57 | 4–3 | 3.4 | +0.64 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 7 | Evanston Township HS | 1.99 | 1.36 | 1–6 | 1.4 | −0.63 | 0.1 | 83% |
| 5 | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 4.19 | 3.40 | 3–4 | 3.7 | −0.79 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 6 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 3.26 | 2.47 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.79 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 8 | Loyola Academy | 1.51 | -1.49 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Keane | Lake Forest High School | 2.09 | 5.09 | 7–0 | 6.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 50% |
| Avery Baldwin | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 2.23 | 3.55 | 5–2 | 3.9 | +1.31 | 0.8 | 29% |
| Cate Baldwin | Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.07 | 2.39 | 5–2 | 3.9 | +1.31 | 0.8 | 29% |
| Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia | New Trier HS | 1.49 | 2.12 | 4–3 | 3.4 | +0.64 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Ralph Zemaitis | Evanston Township HS | 0.84 | 0.20 | 1–6 | 1.4 | −0.63 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Liam Kipnis | Evanston Township HS | 0.44 | -0.19 | 1–6 | 1.4 | −0.63 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Nolan Graham | Evanston Township HS | 0.49 | -0.15 | 1–6 | 1.4 | −0.63 | 0.1 | 83% |
| Jack Colyer | University of Chicago Laboratory Schools | 1.57 | 0.78 | 3–4 | 3.7 | −0.79 | 0.3 | 88% |
| Lake Linebaugh | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.43 | 0.63 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.79 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Henry Chen | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.08 | 0.29 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.79 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Jaden Reznick | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 0.59 | -0.20 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.79 | 0.3 | 87% |
| Bleu Strnad | Loyola Academy | 0.69 | -2.31 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
| Adler Johnston | Loyola Academy | 0.70 | -2.30 | 0–7 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.5 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Trevian | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 2-3-6 |
| 2 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildkits | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Maroons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildkits | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wildkits | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Maroons | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Ramblers | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wildkits | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Trevian | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Wildkits | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Maroons | 3-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Trevian | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Maroons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Scouts | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 1-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Maroons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wildkits | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
