Walter Payton College Preparatory High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.52 (fleet 0.88) | 200 of 231 | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–43 (39%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 10–19 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–5 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 10–12 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 5–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 27–43 against 29.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 2026 MISSA Baker Championship | skipper | 0.61 | 0.77 | 8–16 | 7.7 | +0.16 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2026-04-11 | MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.64 | 0.81 | 2–3 | 1.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2025-04-12 | 2025 MISSA SW Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.08 | 0.29 | 2–5 | 2.7 | −0.79 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2024-05-18 | 2024 NATIONAL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT (NIT) | skipper | 0.91 | 1.74 | 6–6 | 4.5 | +0.83 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 2024-04-20 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.80 | -0.08 | 4–6 | 5.4 | −0.88 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2023-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.73 | -0.66 | 5–7 | 7.4 | −1.39 | 1.9 | 98% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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