| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | 13–1 |
| 2 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 12–2 |
| 3 |  |
Fairfield Ludlowe High School | Falcons | 6–8 |
| 4 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 6–8 |
| 5 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Romans | 6–6 |
| 6 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Grizzlies | 6–6 |
| 7 |  |
Barrington High School | Eagles | 5–7 |
| 8 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 4–8 |
| 9 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,466 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 45 of 58 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.429 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.29: a typical event, more orderly than 47% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Academy | 7.43 | 9.34 | 13–1 | 10.9 | +1.91 | 2.0 | 12% |
| 3 | Fairfield Ludlowe High School | 4.28 | 5.77 | 6–8 | 3.3 | +1.49 | 2.4 | 6% |
| 6 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 4.36 | 5.19 | 6–6 | 4.5 | +0.83 | 0.7 | 25% |
| 2 | Christchurch School | 7.62 | 8.22 | 12–2 | 11.2 | +0.60 | 0.3 | 44% |
| 4 | Olympia High School | 5.90 | 5.32 | 6–8 | 7.1 | −0.58 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 5 | Latin School of Chicago | 5.61 | 4.96 | 6–6 | 7.2 | −0.65 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 8 | New Trier HS | 4.64 | 3.96 | 4–8 | 5.2 | −0.68 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 7 | Barrington High School | 5.57 | 4.32 | 5–7 | 7.3 | −1.26 | 1.6 | 97% |
| 9 | Minnetonka High School | 2.57 | -0.43 | 0–12 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Romans | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Falcons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seawolves | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Romans | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Eagles | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Romans | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Romans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Trevian | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Seahorses | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Falcons | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Grizzlies | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-3-6 |
| 21 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Grizzlies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Falcons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Romans | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahorses | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Falcons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Romans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Trevian | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Romans | 2-3-6 |
| 37 | |
Seawolves | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Grizzlies | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Romans | 2-3-6 |
| 40 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Falcons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 44 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 45 | |
Romans | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers | 4-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Grizzlies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Romans | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Trevian | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Grizzlies | 1-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 3-4-5 |
| 51 | |
Romans | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-6 |
| 52 | |
Grizzlies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Seawolves | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 2-3-6 |
| 54 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-5 |
| 56 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Falcons | 3-4-5 |
| 58 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
