Minnetonka High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.80 (fleet 1.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–20 (44%) as crew 4–5 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 0–12 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 11–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 20–25 against 19.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-18 | 2024 NATIONAL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT (NIT) | skipper | 0.86 | -2.14 | 0–12 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.0 | >99% |
| 2023-05-13 | LMSS Team Race | skipper | 0.91 | 1.55 | 11–4 | 9.7 | +0.64 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 2022-05-21 | Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | skipper | -0.06 | -0.05 | 5–4 | 5.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 63% |
| 2022-05-21 | Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | crew | -0.06 | 0.17 | 4–5 | 3.8 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| 2024 NATIONAL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT (NIT) | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| 2024 MN State Champs Green | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 2.16 |
| 2024 MN State Champs Gold | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.0 | 0.50 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS Conference #2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.3 | 3.60 |
| MN Conference #3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.8 | 0.40 |
| LMSS Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Minnesota MSS Fall 2022 #3 | Crew | A, B | 4 | 6.5 | — |
| Conference #1 | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.5 | 1.61 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | Crew | TR | 18 | 50% | — |
| MN Spring Conference #3 | Crew | A | 7 | 6.9 | — |
| MN Conference #1 | Skipper | B | 1 | 8.0 | -1.51 |
| Minnesota Conference #4 | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 0.68 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS Conference #3 | Skipper | B | 2 | 11.0 | 0.08 |
| MN Conference #1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.8 | -0.05 |
| MISSA Keelboat Quals Group A Keelboat | Reserve | A | 5 | 1.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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