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Conference #1

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 27 28 55
2 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 22 46 68
3 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Gold 23 50 73
4 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 23 51 74
5 Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 21 57 78
6 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 52 27 79
7 Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Warriors 69 16 85
8 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 58 30 88
9 St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 38 54 92
10 Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 39 56 95
11 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 62 50 112
12 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 63 50 113
13 White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 66 74 140
14 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 72 74 146
15 Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 85 66 151
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers 1 6 1 11 1 1 21 Hank Seum '23
Parker Ziegler '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 3 5 5 2 3 4 22 Teddy Bower '26
Bryce Lesinski '23
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 6 7 2 1 5 2 23 Stonewall Anderson '26 [1-6]
Mara Lysaght '24 [1-2, 5-6]
William Barrett '24 [3-4]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Gold 7 3 3 3 2 5 23 Dominik Moncur '25 [1-6]
Robert Jones '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Elliot Williams '26 [3-4]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 5 1 8 4 6 3 27 Max Barrett '25
Gwen Nechas '24
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 2 2 11 5 8 10 38 Lorenzo Good '25
Evan Holmes '23
Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 8 4 6 7 7 7 39 Leo Markus '23
Natalie Richardson '23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 9 9 9 12 4 9 52 Sofia Sigel '24
Ana Stewart '23
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 13 10 4 6 11 14 58 Lara Granucci '24
Parker Laing '24
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs 12 8 14 8 9 11 62 Ella Wisely '23
Joshua Drivdahl '25
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 14 13 7 9 12 8 63 Hunter Wheaton '23
Joseph Snyder '24
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears 11 11 10 14 14 6 66 Robbie Dresen '25
Elin Reigstad '25
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Warriors 4 14 13 13 13 12 69 Ethan Stohr '23 [1-3, 5-6]
Wyatt Holst '24 [4]
Teagan Hartwig-Burton '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Wyatt Holst '24 [3]
Ethan Stohr '23 [4]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 10 12 12 15 10 13 72 Katherine Ahlquist '24
Opal Ofstedal '24
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 15 15 15 10 15 15 85 Leif Rush '27
Huxley Westemeier '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Warriors 1 1 2 1 2 9 16 Kristoffer Koop '24 [1-6]
Sebastian Tisdell '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Brandon Eberts '25 [3-4]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 2 5 1 10 5 4 27 Owen Ostbye '28 [1-6]
Katya Cavanaugh '24 [1-2, 5]
Bridger Goll '26 [3-4, 6]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 4 6 2 6 6 3 5 28 Maxwell Kelley '26
Amelia Sulciner '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 8 6 8 3 4 1 30 Nigel Yu '24 [1-6]
David Acheson '24 [1-5]
Milan Darji '26 [6]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 4 10 5 DNS 8 3 46 Martha Hughes '21
Lucy Zinn '24
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Gold 3 8 11 8 6 14 50 Jack Karban '23
Aiden Kennedy '25
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Mixed 5 4 7 7 12 15 50 Marco Constantini '23
Owen Schulze '23
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Zephyrs DNS 3 13 2 10 6 50 Mason Scheinder '26
Akaycia Belisle '25
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 10 7 4 12 DNS 2 51 Harper Gordon '26
Britta Lundeen-Hetland '25
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans 12 13 10 5 1 13 54 Dylan Mcdonald '25
Peter Jacobs '26
Washburn High School Washburn High School Millers 9 12 9 9 9 8 56 Soren Miller-Sardelis '24
Nick Ross '25
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Panthers DNF 11 3 4 11 12 57 Alexander Bixby '25
Sofie Muschenheim '25
Southwest High School Southwest High School Lakers 11 14 12 11 7 11 66 Ray Taha '26
Timothy Chouinard '26
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 5 7 15 DNF 13 13 10 74 Hazel Eiden '25 [1-2, 4-6]
Katherine Vonsmith '27 [3]
Gloria Jorczak '24 [1-3, 5-6]
Katherine Vonsmith '27 [4]
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Bears DNS 9 14 14 14 7 74 Stella Christianson '25
Madeline Mcnerlin '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Brainerd High SchoolBrainerd High School Warriors111111
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs222222
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 1333333
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 2444444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 3555555
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 4666666
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 5777777
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers888888
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers999999
St. Paul Academy (MN)St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans101010101010
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Millers111111111111
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Gold131313131313
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed141414141414
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy121212121212
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears151515151515

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Brainerd High SchoolBrainerd High School Warriors111111
MahtomediMahtomedi Zephyrs222222
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 1333333
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 2444444
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 3555555
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 4666666
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers 5777777
Mounds Park AcademyMounds Park Academy Panthers888888
Southwest High SchoolSouthwest High School Lakers999999
St. Paul Academy (MN)St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans101010101010
Washburn High SchoolWashburn High School Millers111111111111
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Gold131313131313
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Mixed141414141414
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy121212121212
White Bear Lake High SchoolWhite Bear Lake High School Bears151515151515
School / Team SkipperCrew
Brainerd High School Brainerd High School Ethan Stohr '23 [1-3, 5-6]
Wyatt Holst '24 [4]		 Teagan Hartwig-Burton '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Wyatt Holst '24 [3]
Ethan Stohr '23 [4]
Warriors Kristoffer Koop '24 [1-6] Sebastian Tisdell '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Brandon Eberts '25 [3-4]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Ella Wisely '23 Joshua Drivdahl '25
Zephyrs Mason Scheinder '26 Akaycia Belisle '25
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Lara Granucci '24 Parker Laing '24
Skippers 1 Nigel Yu '24 [1-6] David Acheson '24 [1-5]
Milan Darji '26 [6]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Teddy Bower '26 Bryce Lesinski '23
Skippers 2 Martha Hughes '21 Lucy Zinn '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Sofia Sigel '24 Ana Stewart '23
Skippers 3 Owen Ostbye '28 [1-6] Katya Cavanaugh '24 [1-2, 5]
Bridger Goll '26 [3-4, 6]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Max Barrett '25 Gwen Nechas '24
Skippers 4 Maxwell Kelley '26 Amelia Sulciner '24
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Katherine Ahlquist '24 Opal Ofstedal '24
Skippers 5 Hazel Eiden '25 [1-2, 4-6]
Katherine Vonsmith '27 [3]		 Gloria Jorczak '24 [1-3, 5-6]
Katherine Vonsmith '27 [4]
Mounds Park Academy Mounds Park Academy Hank Seum '23 Parker Ziegler '24
Panthers Alexander Bixby '25 Sofie Muschenheim '25
Southwest High School Southwest High School Leif Rush '27 Huxley Westemeier '24
Lakers Ray Taha '26 Timothy Chouinard '26
St. Paul Academy (MN) St. Paul Academy (MN) Lorenzo Good '25 Evan Holmes '23
Spartans Dylan Mcdonald '25 Peter Jacobs '26
Washburn High School Washburn High School Leo Markus '23 Natalie Richardson '23
Millers Soren Miller-Sardelis '24 Nick Ross '25
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Dominik Moncur '25 [1-6] Robert Jones '23 [1-2, 5-6]
Elliot Williams '26 [3-4]
Gold Jack Karban '23 Aiden Kennedy '25
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Hunter Wheaton '23 Joseph Snyder '24
Mixed Marco Constantini '23 Owen Schulze '23
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Stonewall Anderson '26 [1-6] Mara Lysaght '24 [1-2, 5-6]
William Barrett '24 [3-4]
Navy Harper Gordon '26 Britta Lundeen-Hetland '25
White Bear Lake High School White Bear Lake High School Robbie Dresen '25 Elin Reigstad '25
Bears Stella Christianson '25 Madeline Mcnerlin '23

Conditions — 09/17/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1008.5 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 65°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.9 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From S (184°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1008.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at White Bear Lake: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.10
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.24 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at White Bear Lake by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at White Bear Lake, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →