Minnetonka High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.79 (fleet 1.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–15 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 0–15 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 0–15 against 4.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-13 | LMSS Team Race | skipper | 0.98 | -2.02 | 0–15 | 4.1 | ≤−3.00 | 6.4 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Art Johnson Invitational | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.7 | 1.40 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS Fall 2023 Conference Regatta #2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.3 | 0.06 |
| Art Johnson | Skipper | B | 12 | 1.3 | 3.52 |
| 2023 Fall MN Conference #1 | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.8 | 0.81 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS Conference #2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.5 | -1.37 |
| MN Conference #3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.0 | 2.61 |
| LMSS Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Minnesota MSS Fall 2022 #3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 2.11 |
| Conference #1 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 1.29 |
| 2022 MN Fall Conference #2 | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.8 | 2.10 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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