MSS Fall 2023 Conference Regatta #2

HostLake Minnetonka Sailing School
Date10/07/2023
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Minnetonka High School	Skippers 1	20	13	33
2	Wayzata High School	Trojans 3	19	16	35
3	Blake School	Mixed	19	30	49
4	Minnetonka High School	Skippers 2	43	26	69
5	Minnetonka High School	Mixed 1	35	50	85
6	St. Paul Academy (MN)	Spartans	37	54	91
7	Southwest High School	Mixed	46	51	97
8	Minnetonka High School	Skippers 4	50	48	98
9	Minnetonka High School	Skippers 3	61	48	109
10	Mahtomedi	Mixed	42	68	110
11	Wayzata High School	Trojans 1	52	74	126
12	Minnetonka High School	Mixed 2	94	43	137
13	Great River School	Mixed	64	75	139
14	Wayzata High School	Trojans 2	68	77	145
15	Orono High School	Spartans	81	66	147
16	White Bear Lake High School	Bears	85	74	159

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Wayzata High School	Trojans 3	1	5	5	2	5	1	19	Dominik Moncur '25 Aiden Kennedy '25
Blake School	Mixed	6	2	4	1	3	3	19	Teddy Bower '26 David Acheson '24
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 1	3	1	2	11	1	2	20	Evy Engebretson '24 Amelia Sulciner '24
Minnetonka High School	Mixed 1	2	4	13	4	7	5	35	Lara Granucci '24 Linnea Martin '27
St. Paul Academy (MN)	Spartans	8	9	3	3	8	6	37	Lorenzo Good '25 Finnigan Cairns '25
Mahtomedi	Mixed	9	13	1	6	9	4	42	Akaycia Belisle '25 Joshua Drivdahl '25
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 2	5	7	9	5	10	7	43	Jack Brellenthin '26 Adra Jasper '26
Southwest High School	Mixed	4	11	12	7	4	8	46	Nick Ross '25 [1-6] Aden Lake '27 [1-5] Timothy Chouinard '27 [6]
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 4	7	6	7	9	6	15	50	Jack Siefker '26 Bridger Goll '26
Wayzata High School	Trojans 1	12	3	14	12	2	9	52	Stonewall Anderson '26 [1-6] Jack Reynolds '29 [1-2, 5-6] Jackson Hadley '29 [3-4]
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 3	10	10	11	8	12	10	61	Gwyn Noller '25 Katharine Woodburn '27
Great River School	Mixed	11	8	8	10	13	14	64	Claire Schendel '26 [1-6] Silas Taylor '25 [1-2] Weston Steingraber '27 [3-6]
Wayzata High School	Trojans 2	13	12	6	13	11	13	68	Alyson Liu '24 [1-6] David Key '28 [1-2, 5-6] Nathaniel Lindblad '24 [3-4]
Orono High School	Spartans	14	15	10	16	14	12	81	Rory Baker '24 Cooper Cullen '27
White Bear Lake High School	Bears	16	14	15	14	15	11	85	Josie Guidinger '26 Angus Levins '25
Minnetonka High School	Mixed 2	15	16	16	15	16	16	94	Hazel Eiden '25 Grant Conley '26

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 1	1	1	6	3	1	1	13	Sofia Sigel '24 Lucy Zinn '24
Wayzata High School	Trojans 3	2	4	5	1	2	2	16	Britta Lundeen-Hetland '25 Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 2	7	3	3	6	4	3	26	Reese Kottke '26 Gwen Nechas '24
Blake School	Mixed	10	2	2	2	10	4	30	Ben Mckee '24 [1-2, 5-6] Martha Hughes '24 [3-4] Gloria Jorczak '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Minnetonka High School	Mixed 2	3	8	4	7	7	14	43	Maggie Mcgary '28 Anastasia Gilbert '26
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 4	4	7	12	5	13	7	48	Maxwell Kelley '26 Joey Kim '26
Minnetonka High School	Skippers 3	9	11	9	11	3	5	48	Piper Laing '27 Eden Linnebach '27
Minnetonka High School	Mixed 1	16	5	7	9	5	8	50	Owen Ostbye '28 Katherine Ahlquist '24
Southwest High School	Mixed	13	15	1	10	6	6	51	Ben Padden '25 Soren Miller-Sardelis '24
St. Paul Academy (MN)	Spartans	5	6	8	12	14	9	54	Leif Rush '27 Talia Cairns '25
Orono High School	Spartans	11	14	13	4	9	15	66	Finn Kolar '28 Carter Radintz '27
Mahtomedi	Mixed	6	9	15	14	12	12	68	Alexander Bixby '25 Sofie Muschenheim '25
White Bear Lake High School	Bears	8	10	DNF	16	11	RDG	74	Josie Guidinger '26 Angus Levins '25
Wayzata High School	Trojans 1	15	13	10	8	15	13	74	Mara Lysaght '24 Lauren Reichert '24
Great River School	Mixed	14	16	14	13	8	10	75	Ella Fritz '27 Jude Gwanemark '27
Wayzata High School	Trojans 2	12	12	11	15	16	11	77	Liam Strobel '29 Owen Neus '29

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.150+0.15

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Blake School Mixed	1	1	5	5	7	7
Great River School Mixed	3	3	6	6	9	9
Mahtomedi Mixed	5	5	7	7	10	10
Minnetonka High School Mixed 1	11	11	13	13	15	15
Minnetonka High School Mixed 2	12	12	14	14	16	16
Minnetonka High School Skippers 1	6	6	9	9	11	11
Minnetonka High School Skippers 2	7	7	10	10	12	12
Minnetonka High School Skippers 3	9	9	11	11	13	13
Minnetonka High School Skippers 4	10	10	12	12	14	14
Orono High School Spartans	13	13	15	15	17	17
Southwest High School Mixed	14	14	16	16	18	18
St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans	15	15	17	17	19	19
Wayzata High School Trojans 1	16	16	18	18	1	1
Wayzata High School Trojans 2	17	17	19	19	3	3
Wayzata High School Trojans 3	18	18	1	1	5	5
White Bear Lake High School Bears	19	19	3	3	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Blake School Mixed	3	3	6	6	9	9
Great River School Mixed	5	5	7	7	10	10
Mahtomedi Mixed	6	6	9	9	11	11
Minnetonka High School Mixed 1	12	12	14	14	16	16
Minnetonka High School Mixed 2	13	13	15	15	17	17
Minnetonka High School Skippers 1	7	7	10	10	12	12
Minnetonka High School Skippers 2	9	9	11	11	13	13
Minnetonka High School Skippers 3	10	10	12	12	14	14
Minnetonka High School Skippers 4	11	11	13	13	15	15
Orono High School Spartans	14	14	16	16	18	18
Southwest High School Mixed	15	15	17	17	19	19
St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans	16	16	18	18	1	1
Wayzata High School Trojans 1	17	17	19	19	3	3
Wayzata High School Trojans 2	18	18	1	1	5	5
Wayzata High School Trojans 3	19	19	3	3	6	6
White Bear Lake High School Bears	1	1	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Blake School	Teddy Bower '26	David Acheson '24
Mixed	Ben Mckee '24 [1-2, 5-6] Martha Hughes '24 [3-4]	Gloria Jorczak '24 [1-2, 5-6]
Great River School	Claire Schendel '26 [1-6]	Silas Taylor '25 [1-2] Weston Steingraber '27 [3-6]
Mixed	Ella Fritz '27	Jude Gwanemark '27
Mahtomedi	Akaycia Belisle '25	Joshua Drivdahl '25
Mixed	Alexander Bixby '25	Sofie Muschenheim '25
Minnetonka High School	Lara Granucci '24	Linnea Martin '27
Mixed 1	Owen Ostbye '28	Katherine Ahlquist '24
Minnetonka High School	Hazel Eiden '25	Grant Conley '26
Mixed 2	Maggie Mcgary '28	Anastasia Gilbert '26
Minnetonka High School	Evy Engebretson '24	Amelia Sulciner '24
Skippers 1	Sofia Sigel '24	Lucy Zinn '24
Minnetonka High School	Jack Brellenthin '26	Adra Jasper '26
Skippers 2	Reese Kottke '26	Gwen Nechas '24
Minnetonka High School	Gwyn Noller '25	Katharine Woodburn '27
Skippers 3	Piper Laing '27	Eden Linnebach '27
Minnetonka High School	Jack Siefker '26	Bridger Goll '26
Skippers 4	Maxwell Kelley '26	Joey Kim '26
Orono High School	Rory Baker '24	Cooper Cullen '27
Spartans	Finn Kolar '28	Carter Radintz '27
Southwest High School	Nick Ross '25 [1-6]	Aden Lake '27 [1-5] Timothy Chouinard '27 [6]
Mixed	Ben Padden '25	Soren Miller-Sardelis '24
St. Paul Academy (MN)	Lorenzo Good '25	Finnigan Cairns '25
Spartans	Leif Rush '27	Talia Cairns '25
Wayzata High School	Stonewall Anderson '26 [1-6]	Jack Reynolds '29 [1-2, 5-6] Jackson Hadley '29 [3-4]
Trojans 1	Mara Lysaght '24	Lauren Reichert '24
Wayzata High School	Alyson Liu '24 [1-6]	David Key '28 [1-2, 5-6] Nathaniel Lindblad '24 [3-4]
Trojans 2	Liam Strobel '29	Owen Neus '29
Wayzata High School	Dominik Moncur '25	Aiden Kennedy '25
Trojans 3	Britta Lundeen-Hetland '25	Harper Lundeen-Hetland '27
White Bear Lake High School	Josie Guidinger '26	Angus Levins '25
Bears	Josie Guidinger '26	Angus Levins '25

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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MSS Fall 2023 Conference Regatta #2

Division A

Division B

From the notes