Minnetonka High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.64 (fleet 0.94) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.06 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 12–3 (80%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 0–3 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 12–0 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 12–3 against 8.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 2026 LMSS Team Race | skipper | 0.82 | -2.18 | 0–3 | 0.9 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| 2025-05-10 | LMSS Team Race 2025 | skipper | 0.37 | 3.37 | 12–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| 2026 LMSS Team Race | Skipper | TR | 3 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS #1 WBSS | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.0 | 2.77 |
| 2025 MISSA Keelboat Championship Silver Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 2.8 | — |
| 2025 MISSA Keelboat Championship White Keelboat | Crew | A | 4 | 6.2 | — |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| LMSS Team Race 2025 | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS #2 | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | 0.01 |
| May Madness Regatta: C420 Division | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.2 | 0.59 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS Fall 2023 Conference Regatta #2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.3 | 0.61 |
| Art Johnson | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.4 | -0.52 |
| 2023 Fall MN Conference #1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.2 | 2.32 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| MSS Conference #2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.0 | -0.15 |
| MN Conference #3 | Crew | B | 6 | 2.7 | +0.65 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Minnesota MSS Fall 2022 #3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.8 | -0.59 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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