| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 1 | 12–0 |
| 2 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 10–2 |
| 3 |  |
Blake School | Mixed | 8–4 |
| 4 | |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 2 | 5–7 |
| 5 |  |
Mahtomedi | Mixed | 4–8 |
| 6 |  |
Benilde St Margarets | Red | 3–9 |
| 7 | |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers 3 | 0–12 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 12,617 team race matches sailed before 2025-05-10, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 31 of 42 matches (74%) with a log-loss of 0.522 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.14 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 30% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 1 | 3.01 | 6.01 | 12–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| 2 | Wayzata High School Navy | 3.60 | 4.57 | 10–2 | 8.6 | +0.97 | 0.7 | 28% |
| 6 | Benilde St Margarets Red | 0.39 | 1.14 | 3–9 | 2.0 | +0.75 | 0.5 | 31% |
| 5 | Mahtomedi Mixed | 0.99 | 1.47 | 4–8 | 3.2 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 40% |
| 3 | Blake School Mixed | 3.74 | 3.23 | 8–4 | 8.9 | −0.51 | 0.3 | 83% |
| 4 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 | 2.44 | 1.83 | 5–7 | 6.1 | −0.60 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 7 | Minnetonka High School Skippers 3 | 2.23 | -0.77 | 0–12 | 5.6 | ≤−3.00 | 10.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maggie Mcgary | Minnetonka High School | 0.95 | 3.95 | 12–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| Jack Siefker | Minnetonka High School | 0.37 | 3.37 | 12–0 | 7.6 | ≥+3.00 | 7.7 | <1% |
| Stonewall Anderson | Wayzata High School | 1.30 | 2.28 | 10–2 | 8.6 | +0.97 | 0.7 | 28% |
| Nicholas Grimm | Benilde St Margarets | -0.37 | 0.38 | 3–9 | 2.0 | +0.75 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Jack Colosi | Mahtomedi | 0.36 | 0.84 | 4–8 | 3.2 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 40% |
| Josh Van Norman | Mahtomedi | 0.58 | 1.06 | 4–8 | 3.2 | +0.48 | 0.2 | 40% |
| Joey Kim | Minnetonka High School | 0.97 | 1.05 | 2–2 | 1.9 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Olly Bower | Blake School | 0.50 | -0.02 | 8–4 | 8.9 | −0.51 | 0.3 | 83% |
| Maxwell Kelley | Minnetonka High School | 1.09 | 0.48 | 5–7 | 6.1 | −0.60 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Linnea Martin | Minnetonka High School | 0.36 | -0.24 | 5–7 | 6.1 | −0.60 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Mark Yakovlev | Minnetonka High School | 1.33 | -1.67 | 0–12 | 5.6 | ≤−3.00 | 10.8 | >99% |
| Bridger Goll | Minnetonka High School | 0.36 | -2.64 | 0–12 | 5.6 | ≤−3.00 | 10.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Navy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Navy | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Navy | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Mixed | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Red | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Navy | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Red | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Navy | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Red | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 2-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 2-4-6 |
| 25 | |
Navy | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Red | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Navy | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Red | 4-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Navy | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Red | 3-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Navy | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Red | 2-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 38 | |
Skippers 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Skippers 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Navy | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Red | 2-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Skippers 3 | 4-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Skippers 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Skippers 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navy | 1-5-6 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
