Mahtomedi '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.07 (fleet 0.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–15 (17%) as crew 1–1 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–15 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 1 | — | 1–1 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 3–15 against 7.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | skipper | -0.07 | -2.20 | 3–15 | 7.6 | −2.12 | 5.0 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| LMSS Team Race 2025 | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Dusty Waters Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.6 | 0.66 |
| 2022 MN Fall Conference #2 | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 0.86 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | Skipper | TR | 18 | 17% | — |
| MN Conference #1 | Crew | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MN Fall Conference #2 | Skipper | A | 6 | 21.2 | -2.13 |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| MN Conference #3 at Minneapolis Sailing Center | Crew | B | 7 | 6.3 | — |
| MN Conference #2 | Crew | TR | 2 | 50% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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