| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
White Bear Lake High School | Mixed | 3–0 |
| 1 |  |
Edina High School | Hornets | 3–0 |
| 3 |  |
St. Paul Academy (MN) | Mixed | 3–1 |
| 4 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 2–1 |
| 5 |  |
Mahtomedi | Mixed | 1–1 |
| 6 |  |
Brainerd High School | Warriors | 1–2 |
| 7 |  |
Orono High School | Spartans | 0–2 |
| 8 |  |
Pequot Lakes High School | Mixed | 0–3 |
| 8 | |
Wayzata High School | Mixed | 0–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 7,609 team race matches sailed before 2021-05-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 13 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.378 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.50 ± 0.66: a typical event, more orderly than 78% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | 3.12 | 6.12 | 3–0 | 2.2 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 36% |
| 1 | Edina High School Hornets | 0.87 | 3.87 | 3–0 | 1.8 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 21% |
| 4 | Wayzata High School Navy | 0.54 | 2.01 | 2–1 | 1.4 | +1.47 | 0.5 | 47% |
| 6 | Brainerd High School Warriors | -0.92 | -0.36 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 3 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed | 3.29 | 2.54 | 3–1 | 3.3 | −0.75 | 0.1 | 89% |
| 5 | Mahtomedi Mixed | 0.99 | -0.05 | 1–1 | 1.3 | −1.04 | 0.2 | 91% |
| 8 | Wayzata High School Mixed | -0.17 | -3.17 | 0–3 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| 8 | Pequot Lakes High School Mixed | 0.56 | -2.44 | 0–3 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| 7 | Orono High School Spartans | -0.18 | -3.18 | 0–2 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.6 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyson Liu | Wayzata High School | 0.03 | 1.50 | 2–1 | 1.4 | +1.47 | 0.5 | 47% |
| Jackson Holmes | Brainerd High School | -0.20 | 0.36 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 58% |
| Jackson Medeck | Brainerd High School | -0.32 | 0.24 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 58% |
| Wyatt Holst | Brainerd High School | -0.46 | 0.09 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 58% |
| Alexandre Cholat | St. Paul Academy (MN) | 1.03 | 0.29 | 3–1 | 3.3 | −0.75 | 0.1 | 89% |
| Henry Jackson | Wayzata High School | 0.42 | -2.58 | 0–3 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Shelby Balmer | Pequot Lakes High School | 0.42 | -2.58 | 0–3 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Brandon Eberts | Pequot Lakes High School | 0.42 | -2.58 | 0–3 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | Wayzata High School Navy | 88% | ||
| 2 | Brainerd High School Warriors | Wayzata High School Mixed | 36% | upset | |
| 3 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed | Pequot Lakes High School Mixed | 90% | ||
| 4 | Edina High School Hornets | Mahtomedi Mixed | 47% | upset | |
| 5 | Wayzata High School Navy | Orono High School Spartans | 65% | ||
| 6 | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed | 47% | upset | |
| 7 | Mahtomedi Mixed | Brainerd High School Warriors | 82% | ||
| 8 | Edina High School Hornets | Pequot Lakes High School Mixed | 56% | ||
| 9 | Wayzata High School Navy | Wayzata High School Mixed | 64% | ||
| 10 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed | Orono High School Spartans | 94% | ||
| 11 | White Bear Lake High School Mixed | Pequot Lakes High School Mixed | 88% | ||
| 12 | Edina High School Hornets | Brainerd High School Warriors | 80% | ||
| 13 | St. Paul Academy (MN) Mixed | Wayzata High School Mixed | 93% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navy | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Warriors | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hornets | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Navy | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Hornets | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Navy | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Hornets | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 1-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Navy | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 15 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 16 | |
Hornets | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 17 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 18 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 19 | |
Navy | def. | |
Warriors | ||
| 20 | |
Spartans | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 21 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 22 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Warriors | ||
| 23 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 24 | |
Hornets | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 25 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Warriors | ||
| 26 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 27 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 28 | |
Hornets | def. | |
Navy | ||
| 29 | |
Warriors | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 30 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 31 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Navy | ||
| 32 | |
Hornets | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 33 | |
Warriors | def. | |
Spartans | ||
| 34 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Navy | ||
| 35 | |
Mixed | def. | |
Mixed | ||
| 36 | |
Hornets | def. | |
Mixed | ||
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
