Brainerd High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.02 (fleet 0.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–16 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 8–10 | — |
| Spring 2021 | 2 | 2–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (26 matches) the record is 10–16 against 11.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | skipper | 0.19 | -0.44 | 8–10 | 9.7 | −0.62 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 2021-05-15 | MN Conference #2 | skipper | -0.46 | 0.09 | 1–2 | 0.7 | +0.56 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 2021-05-08 | Minnesota Conference #1 | skipper | -0.53 | -0.46 | 1–4 | 1.0 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Season | |||||
| Minnesota MSS Fall 2022 #3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.8 | -1.09 |
| Conference #1 | Crew | A | 2 | 13.0 | -0.06 |
| Art Johnson | Crew | A, B | 6 | 5.8 | +0.06 |
| Spring 2022 Season | |||||
| Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | Skipper | TR | 18 | 44% | — |
| Minnesota Conference #4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 11.0 | -1.03 |
| Fall 2021 Season | |||||
| MSS Conference #3 | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.5 | 2.20 |
| MN Fall Conference #4, 2021 | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.2 | 0.28 |
| Art Johnson | Skipper | A | 10 | 17.1 | -0.60 |
| Spring 2021 Season | |||||
| MN Conference #2 | Skipper | TR | 3 | 33% | — |
| Minnesota Conference #1 | Skipper | TR | 6 | 17% | — |
| Fall 2019 Season | |||||
| MN Conference 1 - Fall 2019 | Skipper | A | 7 | 22.6 | -2.47 |
| MCS Conference Fall 3 | Skipper | B | 7 | 18.0 | -1.47 |
| Spring 2019 Season | |||||
| MN Conf. #3 - Spring | Crew | A, B | 3 | 14.0 | — |
| MCS Conference 4 Spring | Crew | B | 4 | 13.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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