| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 17–1 |
| 2 |  |
Wayzata High School | Mixed | 13–5 |
| 3 |  |
Sheboygan North High School (WI) | Mixed 1 | 12–6 |
| 4 | |
Minnetonka High School | Mixed | 9–9 |
| 5 |  |
Brainerd High School | Mixed | 8–10 |
| 6 |  |
Mahtomedi | Mixed | 3–15 |
| 7 | |
Sheboygan North High School (WI) | Mixed 2 | 1–17 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,745 team race matches sailed before 2022-05-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 48 of 63 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.429 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.09 ± 0.31: a typical event, more orderly than 46% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Wayzata High School Mixed | 1.41 | 3.07 | 13–5 | 8.8 | +1.66 | 3.8 | 2% |
| 3 | Sheboygan North High School (WI) Mixed 1 | 1.52 | 2.58 | 12–6 | 9.4 | +1.05 | 1.5 | 12% |
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers | 4.65 | 4.82 | 17–1 | 16.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 4 | Minnetonka High School Mixed | 1.14 | 1.23 | 9–9 | 8.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 5 | Brainerd High School Mixed | 1.67 | 1.04 | 8–10 | 9.7 | −0.62 | 0.6 | 88% |
| 7 | Sheboygan North High School (WI) Mixed 2 | -1.25 | -2.16 | 1–17 | 1.9 | −0.91 | 0.4 | 87% |
| 6 | Mahtomedi Mixed | 0.98 | -1.15 | 3–15 | 7.6 | −2.12 | 5.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyson Liu | Wayzata High School | 0.13 | 3.07 | 11–1 | 6.8 | +2.94 | 5.8 | 1% |
| Stonewall Anderson | Wayzata High School | 0.70 | 2.36 | 13–5 | 8.8 | +1.66 | 3.8 | 2% |
| Owen Smith | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 0.41 | 1.46 | 12–6 | 9.4 | +1.05 | 1.5 | 12% |
| Frank Ribich | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 0.55 | 1.60 | 12–6 | 9.4 | +1.05 | 1.5 | 12% |
| Jack Brellenthin | Minnetonka High School | -0.06 | 0.17 | 4–5 | 3.8 | +0.22 | 0.0 | 60% |
| Evy Engebretson | Minnetonka High School | 0.97 | 1.14 | 17–1 | 16.9 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 69% |
| Gwyn Noller | Minnetonka High School | -0.10 | -0.02 | 9–9 | 8.8 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 56% |
| Max Barrett | Minnetonka High School | 0.59 | 0.60 | 5–4 | 5.0 | +0.01 | 0.0 | 63% |
| Wyatt Holst | Brainerd High School | 0.19 | -0.44 | 8–10 | 9.7 | −0.62 | 0.6 | 88% |
| Kristoffer Koop | Brainerd High School | 0.87 | 0.25 | 8–10 | 9.7 | −0.62 | 0.6 | 88% |
| Maksim Williams | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | -0.78 | -1.69 | 1–17 | 1.9 | −0.91 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Kyle Irby | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | -1.22 | -2.12 | 1–17 | 1.9 | −0.91 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Nat Green | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | -0.13 | -1.04 | 1–17 | 1.9 | −0.91 | 0.4 | 87% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Mixed | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Skippers | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed 1 | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Mixed 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Mixed | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Mixed | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Skippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Mixed | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 32 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 33 | |
Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 34 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 41 | |
Skippers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 42 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Mixed | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mixed 1 | 2-3-6 |
| 45 | |
Mixed | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Mixed | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 48 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Mixed | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 51 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Mixed | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-6 |
| 54 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 55 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mixed | 2-3-6 DNF |
| 56 | |
Mixed | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Skippers | 1-4-6 |
| 57 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 58 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mixed 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 59 | |
Mixed | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 60 | |
Mixed | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 1-5-6 |
| 61 | |
Mixed 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mixed 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 62 | |
Mixed | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-4-5 |
| 63 | |
Mixed | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mixed | 3-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
