Sheboygan North High School (WI) '24
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 43.50 percentile among ISSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.117 rating points from 13 races with rated skippers. Few races, so the estimate stays near the middle.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | -0.62 | 12.84 | 20.83 | 10 of 12 | 8 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.73 (fleet 1.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–30 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 8–10 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 4–14 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 12–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (54 matches) the record is 24–30 against 22.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-04 | MISSA Baker Qualifier 2024 | skipper | 0.88 | -0.11 | 2–7 | 3.1 | −0.99 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2024-04-14 | West Baker Pre-Qualifiers | skipper | 1.01 | 1.73 | 6–3 | 5.0 | +0.72 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2023-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.14 | -0.11 | 1–8 | 2.1 | −1.25 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2023-04-23 | West Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.90 | 1.27 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2022-05-21 | Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | skipper | 0.41 | 1.46 | 12–6 | 9.4 | +1.05 | 1.5 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| WI State Champs | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.7 | -1.64 |
| West Baker Pre-Qualifiers | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| West Mallory Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.9 | 1.47 |
| MISSA Baker Qualifier 2024 | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| May Madness Regatta: C420 Division | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.4 | 2.14 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| GLQ Open Qualifier TC | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.7 | 1.62 |
| Fall Scramble Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 1.60 |
| Dusty Waters Regatta | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 0.56 |
| 2023 Great Lakes Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 17.0 | -0.65 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| West Baker Pre-Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 9 | 33% | — |
| MISSA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 9 | 11% | — |
| May Madness Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.0 | 0.38 |
| 2023 Spring April 15 JV Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.5 | 1.85 |
| 2023 MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 12 | 13.2 | 0.32 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Dusty Waters Regatta | Crew | B | 8 | 4.1 | +0.24 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Sheboygan Tier 3 | Skipper | A, B | 12 | 5.7 | A -1.28 · B -2.20 |
| Scrappy Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 0.39 |
| 2022 May Madness | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.6 | -0.38 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Dusty Waters Regatta | Crew | A | 5 | 7.2 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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