| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Arrowhead High School | Warhawks | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
Sheboygan North High School (WI) | Raiders | 3–6 |
| 4 |  |
Wayzata High School | Navy | 0–9 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 9,704 team race matches sailed before 2023-04-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 18 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.498 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.25 ± 0.53: a typical event, more orderly than 25% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School Skippers | 2 | 4.37 school −0.37 | Jacob Zils / Lucy Zinn 2.55 Nigel Yu / Amelia Sulciner Evy Engebretson / Ana Stewart 1.28 | 51% | 8–1 (89%) | +3.4 |
| 2 | Arrowhead High School Warhawks | 1 | 6.51 school +0.08 | Charlie Allen / Riley Jensen Cole Schweda / Taiya De Vries John Lieber / Elizabeth Allen | 89% | 7–2 (78%) | −1.1 |
| 3 | Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders | 4 | 3.29 school +0.52 | Frank Ribich / Harsshitha Balachander 1.40 Owen Smith / Finn Leismer 0.90 Nat Green / Aj Kaufman 0.33 | 28% | 3–6 (33%) | +0.5 |
| 4 | Wayzata High School Navy | 3 | 3.46 school +0.11 | Paige Kurtenbach / Rafael Larsen-Zarzosa 0.78 Dominik Moncur / Alyson Liu Stonewall Anderson / Lauren Reichert 1.03 | 32% | 0–9 (0%) | −2.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnetonka High School | 4.37 | 7.81 | 8–1 | 4.6 | +3.44 | 5.9 | 1% |
| 3 | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 3.29 | 3.66 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2 | Arrowhead High School | 6.51 | 5.35 | 7–2 | 8.1 | −1.16 | 0.8 | 94% |
| 4 | Wayzata High School | 3.46 | 0.46 | 0–9 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 4.7 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Yu | Minnetonka High School | 0.82 | 4.27 | 8–1 | 4.6 | +3.44 | 5.9 | 1% |
| Evy Engebretson | Minnetonka High School | 1.28 | 4.73 | 8–1 | 4.6 | +3.44 | 5.9 | 1% |
| Frank Ribich | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 1.40 | 1.77 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Owen Smith | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 0.90 | 1.27 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Nat Green | Sheboygan North High School (WI) | 0.33 | 0.70 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Stonewall Anderson | Wayzata High School | 1.03 | -1.97 | 0–9 | 2.8 | ≤−3.00 | 4.7 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Skippers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Skippers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Navy | 1-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Skippers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Warhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 7 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Warhawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Skippers | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Skippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navy | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Skippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Navy | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Warhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navy | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Skippers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Warhawks | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Minnetonka High School | Skippers | Evy Engebretson '24 Jacob Zils '23 Nigel Yu '23 |
Ana Stewart '23 Lucy Zinn '24 Amelia Sulciner '24 |
|
Arrowhead High School | Warhawks | Charlie Allen '24 Cole Schweda '23 John Lieber '26 |
Riley Jensen '23 Taiya De Vries '25 Elizabeth Allen '26 |
|
Sheboygan North High School (WI) | Raiders | Frank Ribich '26 Nat Green '24 Owen Smith '24 |
Harsshitha Balachander '23 Aj Kaufman '26 Finn Leismer '24 |
|
Wayzata High School | Navy | Dominik Moncur '25 Paige Kurtenbach '23 Stonewall Anderson '26 |
Alyson Liu '24 Rafael Larsen-Zarzosa '23 Lauren Reichert '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
