Sheboygan North High School (WI) '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.18 (fleet 1.88) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–30 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 8–10 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 4–14 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 12–6 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (54 matches) the record is 24–30 against 22.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-04 | MISSA Baker Qualifier 2024 | skipper | 1.50 | 0.51 | 2–7 | 3.1 | −0.99 | 0.6 | 90% |
| 2024-04-14 | West Baker Pre-Qualifiers | skipper | 1.13 | 1.85 | 6–3 | 5.0 | +0.72 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2023-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.40 | 0.15 | 1–8 | 2.1 | −1.25 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2023-04-23 | West Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 1.40 | 1.77 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2022-05-21 | Spring LMSS Team Race 2022 | skipper | 0.55 | 1.60 | 12–6 | 9.4 | +1.05 | 1.5 | 12% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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