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2022 Fall Scramble

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 33 45 78
2 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Varsity 30 58 88
3 Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 1 63 52 115
4 University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 74 46 120
5 Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 2 109 45 154
6 Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Varsity 90 94 184
7 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1 110 82 192
8 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 113 97 210
9 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 80 132 212
10 Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Mixed 129 90 219
11 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School MIXED 171 65 236
12 Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Hill Toppers 59 183 242
13 New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 155 107 262
14 Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 133 161 294
15 Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Mixed 189 131 320
16 Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 145 188 333
17 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY 148 202 350
18 Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2 204 160 364
19 Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 142 223 365
20 Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Mixed 197 187 384
21 Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions 171 227 398
22 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 220 211 431
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Varsity 2 3 3 3 1 1 4 2 6 1 4 30 Cole Schweda '23 [1-11]
Ellie Siepmann '23 [1-4, 7-8, 11]
Jackson Bebeau '27 [5-6, 9-10]
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1 4 1 1 3 9 1 1 4 2 6 33 Charlie Allen '24 [1-11]
Riley Jensen '23 [1-4, 7-8, 11]
James Tessmer '28 [5-6, 9-10]
Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Hill Toppers 10 5 5 2 2 4 BKD 7 9 9 1 59 Henry Ackley '24
Declan Mccormick '24
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 1 6 7 4 4 5 5 3 12 1 11 5 63 Jake Weinstein '23
Damian Amoruso '26
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 4 1 8 5 10 19 7 3 3 5 9 74 Elizabeth Frost '23
Amy Ren '23
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 12 11 12 16 8 3 2 5 2 6 3 80 Oliver Gray '25
Oscar Wolniak '25
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Varsity 5 2 6 9 13 13 5 14 7 3 13 90 Will Utz '23 [1-11]
Ava Kiss '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ben Hendrickson '26 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 2 19 13 7 6 4 6 OCS 9 11 4 7 109 Nissa Berman '26
Georgia Beal '24
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1 18 12 2 7 14 8 6 16 5 7 15 110 Adam Pickhardt '24
Harsshitha Balachander '23
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 3 6 DNF 10 BKD 7 19 8 8 8 11 113 Nathan Finkelstein '26
Mallory Dieball '24
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Mixed 13 9 10 14 9 2 17 19 12 14 10 129 Sophie Niemann '26 [1-11]
Marina Puestow '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Abby Smith '26 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 8 8 9 17 7 11 11 10 15 19 18 133 Oscar Gilroy '23
Sierra Stark '24
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 11 21 19 15 12 10 8 6 16 12 12 142 Paxton Denton '25
Zaria Denton '27
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 15 17 15 18 6 17 9 11 13 10 14 145 Logan Filar '25 [1-8]
Jack Kruse '24 [9-11]
Kai Nordahl '26 [1-10]
Charlie Sauter '25 [11]
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY 9 15 20 13 20 22 10 4 20 13 2 148 Penelope Whiteside '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Cailey Elliott '24 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Kira Schienke '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 14 20 13 8 16 15 12 13 19 17 8 155 Preston Levy '24
Nora Donahue '24
Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions 7 10 18 DNF 17 12 15 15 17 15 22 171 Nick Lorenzen '23 [1-11]
Maddie Quinn '25 [1-4, 9-11]
Scott Beery '23 [5-8]
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School MIXED 16 14 16 12 15 16 18 18 10 20 16 171 Chandler Jarecki '25
Henry Schlichting '27
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Mixed 21 19 11 11 11 14 20 20 21 22 19 189 Quinn O'Dell '26
William Sobol '23
Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Mixed 20 18 14 20 21 20 13 17 18 16 20 197 Edward Mooney '25 [1-11]
Andrew Pentler '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Bennett Stamm '26 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2 17 16 21 19 18 18 21 21 14 18 21 204 Nat Green '24
Finn Leismer '24
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 22 22 17 21 19 21 16 22 22 21 17 220 Ryan Boudreau '24
Miles Richardson '25
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1 9 7 11 3 1 3 6 1 1 2 45 John Lieber '26 [1-11]
Elizabeth Allen '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Cole Bebeau '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 2 5 3 1 2 4 12 7 2 3 3 3 45 Grace Renz '26 [1-11]
Betsy Finley '23 [1-2]
Orla Gilroy '25 [3-11]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons 2 2 2 12 1 5 6 8 2 5 1 46 Lydia Frost '25
Clara Blucher '26
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Eagles 1 3 4 6 1 11 4 1 4 5 9 4 52 Peter Stewart '24
Meredith White '24
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Varsity 8 10 14 3 2 3 4 1 6 2 5 58 Will Platten '23 [1-11]
Joseph Cavanaugh '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Megan Isabell '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School MIXED 4 7 3 7 13 6 2 3 7 7 6 65 Alex Mueller '26 [1-11]
Jonathan Seifert '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Elijah Schleifer '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1 7 5 11 6 6 7 9 10 10 4 7 82 Frank Ribich '26 [1-11]
Caleb Sander '24 [1-4, 9-10]
Jake Leismer '24 [5-8, 11]
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Mixed 10 1 4 10 10 8 8 15 9 6 9 90 Matthew Nigel '25
Tyler David '27
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Varsity 9 6 13 4 9 2 12 7 11 10 11 94 Nathan Kamath '24 [1-11]
Pierre Lambert '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Will Beres '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 1 12 8 5 5 7 10 10 5 4 OCS 8 97 Izzy Rietz '23
Tara Hecht '25
New Trier HS New Trier HS Trevian 2 6 11 9 13 5 15 5 11 12 8 12 107 No Show
No Show
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Mixed 11 13 8 8 8 14 16 12 16 12 13 131 Bri Bohman '24 [1-11]
Baron Reuter '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Max Gillman '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Romans 15 16 10 9 12 11 14 9 15 11 10 132 Kira Mahoney '25
Laine Reshefsky '24
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 2 16 17 16 18 15 13 11 16 8 14 16 160 Senibua Sander '24
Avril Maxey '28
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Varsity 13 12 15 16 17 21 13 13 14 13 14 161 Cassidy Miley '24
Dillon Klemm '23
Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Hill Toppers 18 19 17 15 18 9 19 14 18 18 18 183 Cooper Dunlop '25 [1-11]
Aiden Dimino '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
James Stamm '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Mixed 17 14 20 14 19 18 22 17 13 16 17 187 Cameron Hendrickson '26 [1-11]
Aiden Calagui '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
William Mukana '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Vikings 19 18 18 17 14 17 20 18 17 15 15 188 Aria Nordahl '25 [1-6]
Charlie Sauter '25 [7-11]
Isabella Dereszkiewicz '26 [1-2]
Jack Kruse '24 [3-6]
Aria Nordahl '25 [7-11]
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY 14 15 19 20 16 19 21 20 19 20 19 202 Nora Laus '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Kyle Schienke '26 [3-4, 7-11]
Carly Elliot '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 21 20 12 22 21 16 18 22 20 19 20 211 Sean Carroll '27
Andrew Ter Louw '26
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 20 21 21 19 20 20 17 21 21 21 22 223 Kaylie Rominski '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Anna Sitterly '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Taiya De Vries '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Lions BKD 22 DNF 21 DNF OCS 15 19 22 17 21 227 Gabi Paulikowski '23
Roberta Kuliesiute '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2022 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Varsity22446688101012
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks113355779911
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons22222244668810
Gibraltar High SchoolGibraltar High School Vikings33557799111113
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles 14466881010121214
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles 25577991111131315
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School MIXED779911111313151517
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School VARSITY668810101212141416
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts88101012121414161618
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity99111113131515171719
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Romans1010121214141616181820
Lyons Township High SchoolLyons Township High School Lions1111131315151717191921
Marquette University High SchoolMarquette University High School Hill Toppers1212141416161818202022
Marquette University High SchoolMarquette University High School Mixed131315151717191921211
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 1141416161818202022222
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 21515171719192121113
Sheboygan North High School (WI)Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 1202022222244668
Sheboygan North High School (WI)Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 22121113355779
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Mixed17171919212111335
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons1616181820202222224
Pewaukee High SchoolPewaukee High School Mixed191921211133557
Pewaukee High SchoolPewaukee High School Varsity18182020222222446

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Varsity33557799111113
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks22446688101012
University of Chicago Laboratory SchoolsUniversity of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons113355779911
Gibraltar High SchoolGibraltar High School Vikings4466881010121214
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles 15577991111131315
Jones College PrepJones College Prep Eagles 2668810101212141416
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School MIXED88101012121414161618
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School VARSITY779911111313151517
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts99111113131515171719
Lane Tech College PrepLane Tech College Prep Varsity1010121214141616181820
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Romans1111131315151717191921
Lyons Township High SchoolLyons Township High School Lions1212141416161818202022
Marquette University High SchoolMarquette University High School Hill Toppers131315151717191921211
Marquette University High SchoolMarquette University High School Mixed141416161818202022222
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 11515171719192121113
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Trevian 21616181820202222224
Sheboygan North High School (WI)Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 12121113355779
Sheboygan North High School (WI)Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders 222222244668810
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Mixed18182020222222446
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons17171919212111335
Pewaukee High SchoolPewaukee High School Mixed202022222244668
Pewaukee High SchoolPewaukee High School Varsity191921211133557
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Cole Schweda '23 [1-11] Ellie Siepmann '23 [1-4, 7-8, 11]
Jackson Bebeau '27 [5-6, 9-10]
Varsity Will Platten '23 [1-11] Joseph Cavanaugh '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Megan Isabell '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Charlie Allen '24 [1-11] Riley Jensen '23 [1-4, 7-8, 11]
James Tessmer '28 [5-6, 9-10]
Warhawks John Lieber '26 [1-11] Elizabeth Allen '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Cole Bebeau '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Gibraltar High School Gibraltar High School Logan Filar '25 [1-8]
Jack Kruse '24 [9-11]		 Kai Nordahl '26 [1-10]
Charlie Sauter '25 [11]
Vikings Aria Nordahl '25 [1-6]
Charlie Sauter '25 [7-11]		 Isabella Dereszkiewicz '26 [1-2]
Jack Kruse '24 [3-6]
Aria Nordahl '25 [7-11]
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Jake Weinstein '23 Damian Amoruso '26
Eagles 1 Peter Stewart '24 Meredith White '24
Jones College Prep Jones College Prep Nissa Berman '26 Georgia Beal '24
Eagles 2 Grace Renz '26 [1-11] Betsy Finley '23 [1-2]
Orla Gilroy '25 [3-11]
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Chandler Jarecki '25 Henry Schlichting '27
MIXED Alex Mueller '26 [1-11] Jonathan Seifert '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Elijah Schleifer '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Penelope Whiteside '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Cailey Elliott '24 [3-4, 7-8, 11]		 Kira Schienke '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
VARSITY Nora Laus '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Kyle Schienke '26 [3-4, 7-11]		 Carly Elliot '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Ryan Boudreau '24 Miles Richardson '25
Scouts Sean Carroll '27 Andrew Ter Louw '26
Lane Tech College Prep Lane Tech College Prep Oscar Gilroy '23 Sierra Stark '24
Varsity Cassidy Miley '24 Dillon Klemm '23
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Oliver Gray '25 Oscar Wolniak '25
Romans Kira Mahoney '25 Laine Reshefsky '24
Lyons Township High School Lyons Township High School Nick Lorenzen '23 [1-11] Maddie Quinn '25 [1-4, 9-11]
Scott Beery '23 [5-8]
Lions Gabi Paulikowski '23 Roberta Kuliesiute '23
Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Henry Ackley '24 Declan Mccormick '24
Hill Toppers Cooper Dunlop '25 [1-11] Aiden Dimino '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
James Stamm '26 [3-4, 7-8]
Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Edward Mooney '25 [1-11] Andrew Pentler '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Bennett Stamm '26 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Mixed Cameron Hendrickson '26 [1-11] Aiden Calagui '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
William Mukana '26 [3-4, 7-8]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Nathan Finkelstein '26 Mallory Dieball '24
Trevian 1 Izzy Rietz '23 Tara Hecht '25
New Trier HS New Trier HS Preston Levy '24 Nora Donahue '24
Trevian 2 No Show No Show
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Quinn O'Dell '26 William Sobol '23
Mixed Bri Bohman '24 [1-11] Baron Reuter '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Max Gillman '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Paxton Denton '25 Zaria Denton '27
Raccoons Kaylie Rominski '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Anna Sitterly '26 [3-4, 7-8]		 Taiya De Vries '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-11]
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Sophie Niemann '26 [1-11] Marina Puestow '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Abby Smith '26 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Mixed Matthew Nigel '25 Tyler David '27
Pewaukee High School Pewaukee High School Will Utz '23 [1-11] Ava Kiss '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Ben Hendrickson '26 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Varsity Nathan Kamath '24 [1-11] Pierre Lambert '27 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Will Beres '27 [3-4, 7-8, 11]
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Adam Pickhardt '24 Harsshitha Balachander '23
Raiders 1 Frank Ribich '26 [1-11] Caleb Sander '24 [1-4, 9-10]
Jake Leismer '24 [5-8, 11]
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Sheboygan North High School (WI) Nat Green '24 Finn Leismer '24
Raiders 2 Senibua Sander '24 Avril Maxey '28
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Elizabeth Frost '23 Amy Ren '23
Maroons Lydia Frost '25 Clara Blucher '26

Conditions — 09/17/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 60%  ·  Pressure 1014.3 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 82°F   ↓ 69°F
Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.7 kn
avg  ·  max 12.0 kn
Gusts to 26.8 kn
From SSW (202°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover72% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1014.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 10 kn · W 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Arrowhead/Kettle Moraine/Marquette/Oconomowoc/Pewaukee: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.05 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.03 ± 0.07)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Arrowhead/Kettle Moraine/Marquette/Oconomowoc/Pewaukee by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at Arrowhead/Kettle Moraine/Marquette/Oconomowoc/Pewaukee, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →