New Trier HS '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.08 (fleet 1.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 17–23 (42%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 17–23 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (40 matches) the record is 17–23 against 16.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-20 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.60 | -0.13 | 3–14 | 7.1 | −1.73 | 3.7 | 99% |
| 2023-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.51 | 3.09 | 6–3 | 3.8 | +1.58 | 1.9 | 10% |
| 2023-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.22 | 2.67 | 8–6 | 5.0 | +1.46 | 2.5 | 6% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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