National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy)

HostLake Massapoag YC
Date05/20/2023
TypeNational Invitational
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	St. George's School	Dragons	15–2
2	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	12–5
3	Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	9–8
4	Christchurch School	Seahorses	9–8
5	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	8–9
6	Bainbridge High School	Spartans	11–6
7	East Greenwich High School	Avengers	7–10
8	Sharon High School	Eagles	6–11
9	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	5–12
10	New Trier HS	Trevian	3–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 10,072 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 85 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.554 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.00 ± 0.30: a typical event, more orderly than 39% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	St. George's School Dragons	1	8.57 school +0.33	Christian Ebbin / Avery Peterson 3.02 8–2 Pearse Dowd / Phoebe Fogarty 2.56 9–1 Gil Hackel / Max Miller 5–0 Dylan Balunas / Max Miller 2.63 4–0 Emily Doble / Phoebe Fogarty 3–1 Christian Ebbin / Grace Patterson 3.14 3–0 Pearse Dowd / Grace Patterson 2.46 2–1 Emily Doble / Grace Patterson 3–0 Gil Hackel / Grace Patterson 2–1 Dylan Balunas / Grace Patterson 2.64 2–0 Gil Hackel / Avery Peterson 2–0 Pearse Dowd / Avery Peterson 2.41 1–0 Dylan Balunas / Phoebe Fogarty 2.74 1–0	79%	15–2 (88%)	+1.5
2	Greenwich High School Cardinals	5	7.11 school +0.53	Elle Sykes / Marcos Rotella 2.33 Richard Sykes / Michael Donovan 2.66 Martha Schuessler / Annabelle Elkin 1.39 4–4 Luca Larosa / Mollie Wood 1.65 3–1 Luca Larosa / Wellington Kennedy 1.61 4–0 Martha Schuessler / Wellington Kennedy 1.31 1–0	52%	12–5 (71%)	+3.1
3	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	4	7.16 school −0.23	Parker Moore / Nicholas Bielewicz 2.90 Pierce Brindley / Gianna Dewey 2.26 Leila Pfrang / Stone Dewey 2.18 4–6 Leila Pfrang / Josie Brindley 2.22 5–2	53%	9–8 (53%)	+0.0
4	Christchurch School Seahorses	2	7.54 school +0.20	Jeffrey "Jj" Klempen / Paul Rodrigues Jr 2.49 Jordan Viera / Cameron Kinnear 2.35 Bo Angus / Simone Moss 2.46 9–7 Rafael "Rafa" De Tomas Pereda / Bo Angus 2.64 0–1	61%	9–8 (53%)	−1.3
5	Tabor Academy Seawolves	3	7.43 school +0.25	Jonnie Ciffolillo / Elizabeth Elkinson 2.82 4–8 Patrick Shachoy / Camila Diaz 1.75 6–6 Wyatt Bischoff / Theo Binder 2.48 6–4 Griffin Beaulieu / Fiona Hoben 1.97 4–3 Peter Herlihy / Theo Binder 1–5 Peter Herlihy / Jonnie Ciffolillo 3–1	58%	8–9 (47%)	−1.9
6	Bainbridge High School Spartans	6	5.45	Ben Stone / Jaya Wirth 1.87 Ryan Downey / Talia Esarey 1.91 Carter Anderson / Elliott Chalcraft 1.64	47%	11–6 (65%)	+3.1
7	East Greenwich High School Avengers	9	4.75 school +0.41	Zachary Amelotte / Mara Oancea 1.48 Owen Warren / Madeleine Jarbeau 1.47 Neala Bijari / Pierson Falk 1.28	34%	7–10 (41%)	+1.2
8	Sharon High School Eagles	10	4.59 school +0.11	Andrew Liu / Zander Lai 1.71 Henry Do / Vidhur Busannagari 1.57 Isabella Cho / Grace Kokkotos 1.19 4–6 Rohan Shah / Akash Shah 1.02 2–5	31%	6–11 (35%)	+0.8
9	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	7	5.22	Elizabeth Frost / Lydia Frost 2.01 David Ren / ray han 1.70 Bryan Pan / Illana Umanskiy 1.37	43%	5–12 (29%)	−2.3
10	New Trier HS Trevian	8	5.21 school +0.31	Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia / Mallory Dieball 1.65 Izzy Rietz / Lucy Elvart 1.60 Nathan Finkelstein / Bennett Waters 1.59	42%	3–14 (18%)	−4.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Greenwich High School	7.11	8.32	12–5	8.9	+1.21	2.1	8%
6	Bainbridge High School	5.45	6.64	11–6	7.9	+1.19	2.0	8%
1	St. George's School	8.57	9.46	15–2	13.5	+0.88	0.7	28%
7	East Greenwich High School	4.75	5.17	7–10	5.8	+0.42	0.3	35%
8	Sharon High School	4.59	4.88	6–11	5.2	+0.29	0.1	43%
3	Hampton Roads Academy	7.16	7.18	9–8	9.0	+0.02	0.0	60%
4	Christchurch School	7.54	7.06	9–8	10.3	−0.48	0.4	84%
5	Tabor Academy	7.43	6.73	8–9	9.9	−0.69	0.8	90%
9	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	5.22	4.36	5–12	7.3	−0.85	1.1	93%
10	New Trier HS	5.21	3.48	3–14	7.1	−1.73	3.7	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Luca Larosa	Greenwich High School	1.65	3.96	7–1	4.5	+2.31	2.9	6%
Ben Stone	Bainbridge High School	1.87	3.05	11–6	7.9	+1.19	2.0	8%
Gil Hackel	St. George's School	2.48	3.50	9–1	8.1	+1.02	0.5	40%
Neala Bijari	East Greenwich High School	1.28	1.71	7–10	5.8	+0.42	0.3	35%
Andrew Liu	Sharon High School	1.71	2.00	6–11	5.2	+0.29	0.1	43%
Henry Do	Sharon High School	1.57	1.86	6–11	5.2	+0.29	0.1	43%
Zachary Amelotte	East Greenwich High School	1.48	1.59	6–4	5.8	+0.11	0.0	60%
Jeffrey "Jj" Klempen	Christchurch School	2.49	2.00	9–8	10.3	−0.48	0.4	84%
Jordan Viera	Christchurch School	2.35	1.87	9–8	10.3	−0.48	0.4	84%
David Ren	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	1.70	0.85	5–12	7.3	−0.85	1.1	93%
Bryan Pan	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	1.37	0.52	5–12	7.3	−0.85	1.1	93%
Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia	New Trier HS	1.65	-0.09	3–14	7.1	−1.73	3.7	99%
Izzy Rietz	New Trier HS	1.60	-0.13	3–14	7.1	−1.73	3.7	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tabor Academy	Bainbridge High School	84%
1	2	St. George's School	Christchurch School	67%
1	3	Sharon High School	East Greenwich High School	46%	upset
1	4	Greenwich High School	New Trier HS	80%
1	5	Hampton Roads Academy	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	84%
1	6	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	71%
1	7	Bainbridge High School	Sharon High School	65%
1	8	New Trier HS	Christchurch School	12%	upset
1	9	Hampton Roads Academy	East Greenwich High School	88%
1	10	Greenwich High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	83%
1	11	St. George's School	Sharon High School	95%
1	12	Tabor Academy	New Trier HS	86%
1	13	Hampton Roads Academy	Bainbridge High School	80%
1	14	Greenwich High School	Christchurch School	39%	upset
1	15	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	East Greenwich High School	59%
1	16	Sharon High School	New Trier HS	39%	upset
1	17	St. George's School	Hampton Roads Academy	77%
1	18	Greenwich High School	Tabor Academy	45%	upset
1	19	Bainbridge High School	East Greenwich High School	64%
1	20	Christchurch School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	86%
1	21	Hampton Roads Academy	New Trier HS	83%
1	22	Greenwich High School	Sharon High School	87%
1	23	St. George's School	East Greenwich High School	92%
1	24	Christchurch School	Tabor Academy	50%	upset
1	25	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Bainbridge High School	45%	upset
1	26	Greenwich High School	Hampton Roads Academy	51%
1	27	East Greenwich High School	New Trier HS	41%	upset
1	28	Christchurch School	Sharon High School	90%
1	29	St. George's School	Bainbridge High School	94%
1	30	Tabor Academy	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	73%
1	31	Greenwich High School	East Greenwich High School	85%
1	32	Hampton Roads Academy	Christchurch School	42%	upset
1	33	Bainbridge High School	New Trier HS	55%
1	34	Tabor Academy	Sharon High School	90%
1	35	St. George's School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	91%
1	36	Christchurch School	East Greenwich High School	90%
1	37	Greenwich High School	Bainbridge High School	80%
1	38	Tabor Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	53%
1	39	St. George's School	New Trier HS	92%
1	40	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Sharon High School	61%
1	41	Bainbridge High School	Christchurch School	17%	upset
1	42	Tabor Academy	East Greenwich High School	83%
1	43	St. George's School	Greenwich High School	77%
1	44	Hampton Roads Academy	Sharon High School	89%
1	45	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	New Trier HS	50%
1	46	Bainbridge High School	East Greenwich High School	63%
1	47	Sharon High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	39%	upset
1	48	Bainbridge High School	New Trier HS	55%
1	49	East Greenwich High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	41%	upset
1	50	Bainbridge High School	Sharon High School	65%
1	51	East Greenwich High School	New Trier HS	42%	upset
1	52	Sharon High School	New Trier HS	40%	upset
1	53	Bainbridge High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	55%
1	54	Sharon High School	East Greenwich High School	45%	upset
1	55	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	New Trier HS	51%
1	56	St. George's School	Hampton Roads Academy	79%
1	57	Tabor Academy	Greenwich High School	57%
1	58	St. George's School	Christchurch School	70%
1	59	Greenwich High School	Hampton Roads Academy	52%
1	60	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	71%
1	61	Hampton Roads Academy	Christchurch School	42%	upset
1	62	Christchurch School	Tabor Academy	48%	upset
1	63	St. George's School	Greenwich High School	77%
1	64	Hampton Roads Academy	Tabor Academy	45%	upset
1	65	Christchurch School	Greenwich High School	60%
2	66	East Greenwich High School	Bainbridge High School	37%	upset
2	67	Sharon High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	39%	upset
2	68	Bainbridge High School	New Trier HS	55%
2	69	East Greenwich High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	41%	upset
2	70	Bainbridge High School	Sharon High School	65%
2	71	East Greenwich High School	New Trier HS	42%	upset
2	72	New Trier HS	Sharon High School	60%
2	73	Bainbridge High School	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	54%
2	74	East Greenwich High School	Sharon High School	55%
2	75	New Trier HS	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	49%	upset
2	76	Hampton Roads Academy	St. George's School	21%	upset
2	77	Greenwich High School	Tabor Academy	43%	upset
2	78	St. George's School	Christchurch School	70%
2	79	Greenwich High School	Hampton Roads Academy	53%
2	80	St. George's School	Tabor Academy	71%
2	81	Christchurch School	Hampton Roads Academy	58%
2	82	Christchurch School	Tabor Academy	47%	upset
2	83	Greenwich High School	St. George's School	23%	upset
2	84	Tabor Academy	Hampton Roads Academy	55%
2	85	Christchurch School	Greenwich High School	59%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Spartans	4-5-6
2	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
3	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Avengers	3-4-5
4	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
5	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
6	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Seawolves	3-4-6
7	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
8	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
9	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Avengers	3-5-6
10	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
11	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
12	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
13	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Spartans	3-5-6
14	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Seahorses	3-4-6
15	Maroons	1-3-4	def.	Avengers	2-5-6
16	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Trevian	3-4-6
17	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
18	Cardinals	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
19	Spartans	1-3-4	def.	Avengers	2-5-6
20	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
21	Navigators	1-2-3	def.	Trevian	4-5-6
22	Cardinals	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
23	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Avengers	4-5-6
24	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
25	Maroons	1-2-6	def.	Spartans	3-4-5
26	Cardinals	1-4-5	def.	Navigators	2-3-6
27	Avengers	1-4-5	def.	Trevian	2-3-6
28	Seahorses	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
29	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Spartans	2-4-6
30	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
31	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Avengers	3-5-6
32	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
33	Spartans	2-3-4	def.	Trevian	1-5-6
34	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
35	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
36	Seahorses	1-2-4	def.	Avengers	3-5-6
37	Cardinals	1-2-6	def.	Spartans	3-4-5
38	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Navigators	3-4-6
39	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Trevian	4-5-6
40	Maroons	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
41	Spartans	1-3-6	def.	Seahorses	2-4-5
42	Seawolves	1-3-5	def.	Avengers	2-4-6
43	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Cardinals	4-5-6
44	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
45	Maroons	2-3-4	def.	Trevian	1-5-6
46	Spartans	2-3-5	def.	Avengers	1-4-6
47	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Maroons	3-4-5
48	Spartans	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
49	Avengers	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
50	Spartans	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
51	Avengers	1-4-5	def.	Trevian	2-3-6
52	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Trevian	3-4-5
53	Spartans	1-2-5	def.	Maroons	3-4-6
54	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Avengers	1-5-6
55	Maroons	1-2-3	def.	Trevian	4-5-6
56	Dragons	1-2-4	def.	Navigators	3-5-6
57	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Cardinals	3-4-6
58	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Seahorses	3-4-6
59	Cardinals	2-3-4	def.	Navigators	1-5-6
60	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
61	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Seahorses	3-4-5
62	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Seawolves	1-5-6
63	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Cardinals	1-5-6
64	Navigators	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
65	Seahorses	2-3-4	def.	Cardinals	1-5-6
66	Avengers	1-2-4	def.	Spartans	3-5-6
67	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Maroons	1-5-6
68	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Trevian	4-5-6
69	Avengers	1-2-6	def.	Maroons	3-4-5
70	Spartans	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
71	Avengers	2-3-5	def.	Trevian	1-4-6
72	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
73	Spartans	1-2-3	def.	Maroons	4-5-6
74	Avengers	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
75	Trevian	1-2-4	def.	Maroons	3-5-6
76	Navigators	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
77	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
78	Dragons	1-2-5	def.	Seahorses	3-4-6
79	Cardinals	1-3-4	def.	Navigators	2-5-6
80	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Seawolves	4-5-6
81	Seahorses	1-4-5	def.	Navigators	2-3-6
82	Seahorses	1-4-5	def.	Seawolves	2-3-6
83	Cardinals	1-4-5	def.	Dragons	2-3-6
84	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Navigators	3-4-6
85	Seahorses	1-3-4	def.	Cardinals	2-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
St. George's School	Dragons	Christian Ebbin '24 Dylan Balunas '24 Emily Doble '24 Gil Hackel '26 Pearse Dowd '25	Grace Patterson '25 Avery Peterson '26 Max Miller '24 Phoebe Fogarty '25
Greenwich High School	Cardinals	Elle Sykes '23 Luca Larosa '26 Martha Schuessler '23 Richard Sykes '26	Marcos Rotella '26 Mollie Wood '25 Wellington Kennedy '24 Annabelle Elkin '25 Michael Donovan '26
Hampton Roads Academy	Navigators	Leila Pfrang '25 Parker Moore '25 Pierce Brindley '24	Stone Dewey '26 Josie Brindley '26 Nicholas Bielewicz '26 Gianna Dewey '23
Christchurch School	Seahorses	Bo Angus '25 Jeffrey "Jj" Klempen '23 Jordan Viera '24 Rafael "Rafa" De Tomas Pereda '25	Simone Moss '25 Paul Rodrigues Jr '24 Cameron Kinnear '24 Bo Angus '25
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Griffin Beaulieu '23 Jonnie Ciffolillo '23 Patrick Shachoy '24 Peter Herlihy '25 Wyatt Bischoff '23	Fiona Hoben '24 Elizabeth Elkinson '23 Camila Diaz '24 Theo Binder '25 Jonnie Ciffolillo '23
Bainbridge High School	Spartans	Ben Stone '23 Carter Anderson '23 Ryan Downey '25	Jaya Wirth '23 Elliott Chalcraft '23 Talia Esarey '24
East Greenwich High School	Avengers	Neala Bijari '23 Owen Warren '24 Zachary Amelotte '23	Pierson Falk '24 Madeleine Jarbeau '24 Mara Oancea '23
Sharon High School	Eagles	Andrew Liu '23 Henry Do '23 Isabella Cho '23 Rohan Shah '23	Zander Lai '23 Vidhur Busannagari '23 Grace Kokkotos '23 Akash Shah '23
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	Bryan Pan '23 David Ren '24 Elizabeth Frost '23	Illana Umanskiy '25 Ray Han '26 Lydia Frost '25
New Trier HS	Trevian	Aiala Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Izzy Rietz '23 Nathan Finkelstein '26	Mallory Dieball '24 Lucy Elvart '24 Bennett Waters '26

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →