East Greenwich High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.03 (fleet 1.61) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–27 (56%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 17–14 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 18–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (62 matches) the record is 35–27 against 26.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+8.8). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.48 | 3.01 | 13–4 | 9.3 | +1.52 | 3.0 | 4% |
| 2024-05-04 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 1.49 | 1.84 | 4–10 | 3.5 | +0.35 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2023-05-20 | National Invitational Tournament (Founders Trophy) | skipper | 1.47 | 1.89 | 7–10 | 5.8 | +0.42 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament(Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.15 | 2.76 | 11–3 | 7.6 | +1.61 | 2.9 | 4% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Owen Warren |  Bowdoin College |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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