NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy)

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 11,466 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 45 of 66 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.589 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.44 ± 0.30: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 19% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Greenwich High School Cardinals	1	6.47 school +0.54	Richard Sykes / Michael Donovan 2.65 Sebastian Sheppard / Annabelle Elkin 1.76 10–3 Marcos Rotella / Mollie Wood 1.37 9–2 Luca Larosa / Wellington Kennedy 1.67 9–1	84%	14–3 (82%)	−0.3
2	East Greenwich High School Avengers	3	4.65 school +0.51	Owen Warren / Madeleine Jarbeau 1.48 Colin Auvil / Harper Kelley 1.28 Pierson Falk / Milo Baumgartner 1.19 9–2 Pierson Falk / Isaac Kaldor 1.39 4–2	55%	13–4 (76%)	+3.7
3	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	2	5.19 school +0.25	Glen Foster / Alec Crum 1.66 Avery Beck / Caroline Collins 1.70 Emmet Ennico / Hayes Cooper 1.43	65%	9–8 (53%)	−2.0
4	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	9	3.23 school −0.34	Lyla Solway / Pickle Eville 1.02 Peter Miller / William Simmons 0.77 Simon Hammarlund / Nicholas Merriam 1.68	28%	8–9 (47%)	+3.3
5	Milton Academy Mustangs	4	4.53 school +0.54	Dylan Cafferty / Eliot Hack 1.45 Terrance Lu / Tallulah Doeringer 1.18 Henry Ladd / Navid Nasser Ghodsi 1.30 6–6 Henry Ladd / Juniper Brewster 1.13 0–2	54%	6–8 (43%)	−1.5
6	Dartmouth High School Sailing	5	4.38 school −0.60	Maisy Sperry / Phoebe Murray 1.49 Finn Sperry / Abigail Glaser 1.51 Sam Sperry / Sophia Litos 1.86	52%	5–9 (36%)	−2.3
7	Wellesley High School Raiders	7	3.40 school −0.09	Zach Bender / Colin Byrne 1.16 Kaitlin Hynes / Eoghan Kelley 1.22 Brady Welburn / Avery Thornton 1.06	40%	4–5 (44%)	+0.4
8	Salisbury School Knights	8	2.72	Oliver Puris / Henry Brislin Wade Barillaro / Gavin Leavy Harry Hubbard / Finlay Macdermott	28%	3–6 (33%)	+0.5
9	Sharon High School Eagles	6	3.57 school +0.41	Ethan Huang / Ray Luo 1.24 Thomas Ha / Daniel Lurye 3–5 Daniel Lu / Alex Ng 1.09 2–3 Arthur Do / Henry Comeau 0.86 1–4	43%	3–6 (33%)	−0.9
10	Hingham High School Habormen	10	2.32 school +0.14	Julia Scipione / Chris Hoppe 1.41 1–4 Caroline O'Hara / Audrey Smith 0.19 1–4 Madeleine Accettella / Mia Cleary 1–4 Julia Scipione / Maddie Cleary 1.30 0–4 Caroline O'Hara / Bran James 0.20 0–4 Madeleine Accettella / Chris Hoppe 0–4	22%	1–8 (11%)	−0.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	East Greenwich High School	4.65	6.18	13–4	9.3	+1.52	3.0	4%
4	Marthas Vineyard RHS	3.23	4.50	8–9	4.7	+1.26	2.4	6%
8	Salisbury School	2.72	3.07	3–6	2.5	+0.35	0.1	50%
7	Wellesley High School	3.40	3.71	4–5	3.6	+0.31	0.1	51%
1	Greenwich High School	6.47	6.28	14–3	14.3	−0.19	0.0	73%
9	Sharon High School	3.57	2.98	3–6	3.8	−0.59	0.3	84%
5	Milton Academy	4.53	3.85	6–8	7.5	−0.68	0.6	89%
3	Greens Farms Academy	5.19	4.45	9–8	11.0	−0.74	0.8	91%
6	Dartmouth High School	4.38	3.37	5–9	7.3	−1.01	1.3	95%
10	Hingham High School	2.32	1.24	1–8	2.0	−1.08	0.5	90%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Daniel Lu	Sharon High School	1.09	1.79	2–3	1.4	+0.70	0.2	44%
Wade Barillaro	Salisbury School	0.92	1.27	3–6	2.5	+0.35	0.1	50%
Harry Hubbard	Salisbury School	0.71	1.06	3–6	2.5	+0.35	0.1	50%
Zach Bender	Wellesley High School	1.16	1.47	4–5	3.6	+0.31	0.1	51%
Kaitlin Hynes	Wellesley High School	1.22	1.52	4–5	3.6	+0.31	0.1	51%
Brady Welburn	Wellesley High School	1.06	1.37	4–5	3.6	+0.31	0.1	51%
Luca Larosa	Greenwich High School	1.67	1.79	9–1	8.9	+0.13	0.0	70%
Thomas Ha	Sharon High School	0.80	0.27	3–5	3.7	−0.53	0.2	82%
Sebastian Sheppard	Greenwich High School	1.76	1.19	10–3	10.9	−0.57	0.3	85%
Dylan Cafferty	Milton Academy	1.45	0.77	6–8	7.5	−0.68	0.6	89%
Terrance Lu	Milton Academy	1.18	0.50	6–8	7.5	−0.68	0.6	89%
Avery Beck	Greens Farms Academy	1.70	0.96	9–8	11.0	−0.74	0.8	91%
Finn Sperry	Dartmouth High School	1.51	0.51	5–9	7.3	−1.01	1.3	95%
Sam Sperry	Dartmouth High School	1.86	0.85	5–9	7.3	−1.01	1.3	95%
Madeleine Accettella	Hingham High School	0.41	-0.67	1–8	2.0	−1.08	0.5	90%
Arthur Do	Sharon High School	0.86	-1.20	1–4	2.5	−2.06	1.7	98%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Avengers	1-2-5	def.		Knights	3-4-6
2		Cardinals	1-2-5	def.		Eagles	3-4-6
3		Mustangs	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
4		Dragons	1-2-5	def.		Vineyarders	3-4-6
5		Sailing	1-2-3	def.		Habormen	4-5-6
6		Knights	1-2-4	def.		Eagles	3-5-6
7		Avengers	1-2-5	def.		Raiders	3-4-6
8		Cardinals	2-3-4	def.		Vineyarders	1-5-6
9		Sailing	2-3-5	def.		Mustangs	1-4-6
10		Dragons	1-2-3	def.		Habormen	4-5-6
11		Raiders	1-2-3	def.		Eagles	4-5-6
12		Vineyarders	1-3-5	def.		Knights	2-4-6
13		Avengers	1-3-5	def.		Sailing	2-4-6
14		Cardinals	1-2-3	def.		Dragons	4-5-6
15		Habormen	1-3-6	def.		Mustangs	2-4-5
16		Vineyarders	1-2-4	def.		Raiders	3-5-6
17		Sailing	1-3-4	def.		Eagles	2-5-6
18		Knights	1-2-6	def.		Dragons	3-4-5
19		Mustangs	1-4-5	def.		Avengers	2-3-6
20		Cardinals	1-2-3	def.		Habormen	4-5-6
21		Vineyarders	1-3-5	def.		Sailing	2-4-6
22		Raiders	1-2-5	def.		Dragons	3-4-6
23		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Mustangs	3-4-6
24		Cardinals	1-2-4	def.		Knights	3-5-6
25		Avengers	2-3-4	def.		Habormen	1-5-6
26		Dragons	1-2-3	def.		Sailing	4-5-6
27		Mustangs	1-2-3	def.		Vineyarders	4-5-6
28		Cardinals	2-3-4	def.		Raiders	1-5-6
29		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Avengers	3-4-5
30		Knights	2-3-5	def.		Habormen	1-4-6
31		Dragons	1-2-5	def.		Mustangs	3-4-6
32		Cardinals	2-3-4	def.		Sailing	1-5-6
33		Avengers	1-3-5	def.		Vineyarders	2-4-6
34		Raiders	1-2-4	def.		Knights	3-5-6
35		Eagles	1-4-5	def.		Habormen	2-3-6
36		Cardinals	1-3-4	def.		Mustangs	2-5-6
37		Avengers	1-2-4	def.		Dragons	3-5-6
38		Sailing	1-3-4	def.		Knights	2-5-6
39		Vineyarders	1-2-5	def.		Eagles	3-4-6
40		Raiders	1-2-5	def.		Habormen	3-4-6
41		Avengers	1-2-4	def.		Cardinals	3-5-6
42		Mustangs	1-2-6	def.		Knights	3-4-5
43		Dragons	1-2-4	def.		Eagles	3-5-6
44		Sailing	2-3-5	def.		Raiders	1-4-6
45		Vineyarders	1-2-5	def.		Habormen	3-4-6
46		Vineyarders	1-3-4	def.		Dragons	2-5-6
47		Avengers	1-2-4	def.		Sailing	3-5-6
48		Mustangs	1-2-3	def.		Cardinals	4-5-6
49		Avengers	1-2-3	def.		Dragons	4-5-6
50		Vineyarders	1-3-4	def.		Mustangs	2-5-6
51		Cardinals	1-2-6	def.		Sailing	3-4-5
52		Avengers	1-2-5	def.		Mustangs	3-4-6
53		Dragons	1-3-6	def.		Sailing	2-4-5
54		Cardinals	1-2-6	def.		Vineyarders	3-4-5
55		Mustangs	2-3-4	def.		Sailing	1-5-6
56		Avengers	1-3-6	def.		Vineyarders	2-4-5
57		Cardinals	1-2-5	def.		Dragons	3-4-6
58		Vineyarders	1-2-6	def.		Sailing	3-4-5
59		Dragons	1-2-4	def.		Mustangs	3-5-6
60		Cardinals	1-2-3	def.		Avengers	4-5-6
61		Avengers	1-4-5	def.		Vineyarders	2-3-6
62		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Cardinals	3-4-5
63		Avengers	2-3-5	def.		Dragons	1-4-6
64		Cardinals	1-2-3	def.		Vineyarders	4-5-6
65		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Vineyarders	3-4-5
66		Cardinals	1-2-5	def.		Avengers	3-4-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	Luca Larosa '26 Marcos Rotella '26 Richard Sykes '26 Sebastian Sheppard '27	Wellington Kennedy '24 Mollie Wood '25 Michael Donovan '26 Annabelle Elkin '25
	East Greenwich High School	Avengers	Colin Auvil '26 Owen Warren '24 Pierson Falk '24	Harper Kelley '25 Madeleine Jarbeau '24 Milo Baumgartner '25 Isaac Kaldor '25
	Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	Avery Beck '27 Emmet Ennico '25 Glen Foster '26	Caroline Collins '26 Hayes Cooper '27 Alec Crum '27
	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	Lyla Solway '24 Peter Miller '24 Simon Hammarlund '24	Pickle Eville '26 William Simmons '26 Nicholas Merriam '26
	Milton Academy	Mustangs	Dylan Cafferty '27 Henry Ladd '25 Terrance Lu '25	Eliot Hack '24 Navid Nasser Ghodsi '24 Juniper Brewster '25 Tallulah Doeringer '24
	Dartmouth High School	Sailing	Finn Sperry '26 Maisy Sperry '24 Sam Sperry '26	Abigail Glaser '26 Phoebe Murray '26 Sophia Litos '25
	Wellesley High School	Raiders	Brady Welburn '24 Kaitlin Hynes '25 Zach Bender '24	Avery Thornton '24 Eoghan Kelley '24 Colin Byrne '24
	Salisbury School	Knights	Harry Hubbard '25 Oliver Puris '24 Wade Barillaro '24	Finlay Macdermott '26 Henry Brislin '26 Gavin Leavy '26
	Sharon High School	Eagles	Arthur Do '25 Daniel Lu '24 Ethan Huang '26 Thomas Ha '26	Henry Comeau '25 Alex Ng '27 Ray Luo '25 Daniel Lurye '24
	Hingham High School	Habormen	Caroline O'Hara '25 Julia Scipione '25 Madeleine Accettella '26	Bran James '24 Audrey Smith '26 Maddie Cleary '28 Chris Hoppe '25 Mia Cleary '27