Marthas Vineyard RHS '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.10 (fleet 1.72) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–14 (48%) as crew 8–6 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 3 | 13–14 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | — | 8–6 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 21–20 against 18.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.02 | 2.29 | 8–9 | 4.7 | +1.26 | 2.4 | 6% |
| 2024-04-13 | Bulldog Classic | skipper | 0.83 | -0.44 | 3–3 | 4.2 | −1.28 | 0.9 | 95% |
| 2024-04-06 | Dorchester Bay Super Saturday | skipper | 0.69 | 0.89 | 2–2 | 1.9 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament(Terk Trophy) | crew | 0.54 | 0.62 | 8–6 | 7.8 | +0.08 | 0.0 | 58% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Lyla Solway |  North Carolina State University |
'28 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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