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NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Hyannis, MA

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 20 17 37
2 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 17 46 63
3 Falmouth Academy Falmouth Academy Mariners 40 26 66
4 Nantucket High School Nantucket High School Whalers 36 43 79
5 Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Seahawks 42 43 85
6 Hingham High School Hingham High School Habormen 59 26 85
7 Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Red Hawks 51 67 118
8 Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 67 64 131
9 St. John Paul II School St. John Paul II School Lions 85 76 161
10 Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Clippers 78 87 165
11 Sturgis Charter Public School Sturgis Charter Public School Navigators 108 108 216
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1 1 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 17 Simon Hammarlund '24 [1-9]
Pickle Eville '26 [1-4]
Finn Robinson '25 [5-9]
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 2 3 1 2 1 1 2 5 3 20 Patrick Shachoy '24 [1-4, 7-9]
Peter Herlihy '25 [5-6]
Camila Diaz '24 [1-4, 7-9]
Theo Binder '25 [5-6]
Nantucket High School Nantucket High School Whalers 3 8 6 6 2 3 3 1 4 36 Rory Murray '25
Alice O'Banion '24
Falmouth Academy Falmouth Academy Mariners 4 5 5 5 5 7 4 3 2 40 Marcus Greco '24
Willow Lajoie '26
Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Seahawks 6 2 2 1 4 4 9 9 5 42 Alex Daigle '25
Abbie Catalano '24
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Red Hawks 5 7 4 4 8 5 6 4 8 51 Brendan Wojkowski '25
Camryn Johnson '25
Hingham High School Hingham High School Habormen 7 4 9 8 6 6 5 7 7 59 Sara Menesale '24 [1-9]
Ellie Smith '24 [1-2]
Bran James '24 [3-9]
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 8 6 7 10 7 9 8 6 6 67 William Macneille '25
Noah Dengler '25
Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Clippers 10 10 8 7 9 10 7 8 9 78 Kaiden Holt '27 [1-9]
Maisie Chase '26 [1-4]
Tristan Blaylock '27 [5-9]
St. John Paul II School St. John Paul II School Lions 9 9 10 9 10 8 10 10 10 85 Allison Coursey '25
Morgan Batchelder '24
Sturgis Charter Public School Sturgis Charter Public School Navigators DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 108 No Show
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SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 1 1 5 1 3 3 1 1 1 17 Sander Skaane '27 [1-6]
Jack Schneider '25 [7-9]
Hudson Poor '25 [1-6]
Hingham High School Hingham High School Habormen 2 4 1 3 2 1 7 2 4 26 Julia Scipione '25
Chris Hoppe '25
Falmouth Academy Falmouth Academy Mariners 3 2 2 5 1 5 3 3 2 26 Gus Mcguire '24
Ben Angell '24
Nantucket High School Nantucket High School Whalers 4 8 4 4 6 2 6 4 5 43 Archie Ferguson '24
Brian Osario '24
Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Seahawks 5 3 3 6 5 6 2 6 7 43 Lydia Stanney '27 [1-9]
Alex Herman '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Noah Belson '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 9 5 6 2 8 4 4 5 3 46 Lyla Solway '24 [1-2]
Peter Miller '24 [3-9]
Walker Brescia '24 [1-2, 5-8]
William Simmons '26 [3-4, 9]
Winchester High School Winchester High School Sachems 8 6 7 8 4 8 9 8 6 64 Karenna Marnik '24 [1-4]
Nick Russo '25 [5-9]
Audra Murray '24 [1-4]
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Red Hawks 7 7 10 7 7 7 5 7 10 67 Colt Hill '25 [1-4]
Thomas Moran '26 [5-9]
Colin Shearley '25 [1-4]
Jimmy Reed-Vanleeuwen '25 [5-9]
St. John Paul II School St. John Paul II School Lions 6 9 8 9 9 10 8 9 8 76 Izzy Morris '27
Donovan Hegner '25
Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Clippers 10 10 9 BKD 10 9 10 10 9 87 Leah Campbell '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Lillian Karl '27 [3-6, 9]
Molly Keefe '27 [1-2, 5-9]
Tristan Blaylock '27 [3-4]
Sturgis Charter Public School Sturgis Charter Public School Navigators DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 108 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2023 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Barnstable HSBarnstable HS Red Hawks113355779
Cape Cod AcademyCape Cod Academy Seahawks2244668810
Falmouth AcademyFalmouth Academy Mariners3355779911
Falmouth High School, MAFalmouth High School, MA Clippers44668810101
Hingham High SchoolHingham High School Habormen55779911112
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders66881010113
Nantucket High SchoolNantucket High School Whalers77991111224
St. John Paul II SchoolSt. John Paul II School Lions88101011335
Sturgis Charter Public SchoolSturgis Charter Public School Navigators99111122446
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves10101133557
Winchester High SchoolWinchester High School Sachems11112244668

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Barnstable HSBarnstable HS Red Hawks2244668810
Cape Cod AcademyCape Cod Academy Seahawks3355779911
Falmouth AcademyFalmouth Academy Mariners44668810101
Falmouth High School, MAFalmouth High School, MA Clippers55779911112
Hingham High SchoolHingham High School Habormen66881010113
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders77991111224
Nantucket High SchoolNantucket High School Whalers88101011335
St. John Paul II SchoolSt. John Paul II School Lions99111122446
Sturgis Charter Public SchoolSturgis Charter Public School Navigators10101133557
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves11112244668
Winchester High SchoolWinchester High School Sachems113355779
School / Team SkipperCrew
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Brendan Wojkowski '25 Camryn Johnson '25
Red Hawks Colt Hill '25 [1-4]
Thomas Moran '26 [5-9]		 Colin Shearley '25 [1-4]
Jimmy Reed-Vanleeuwen '25 [5-9]
Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Alex Daigle '25 Abbie Catalano '24
Seahawks Lydia Stanney '27 [1-9] Alex Herman '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Noah Belson '25 [3-4, 7-8]
Falmouth Academy Falmouth Academy Marcus Greco '24 Willow Lajoie '26
Mariners Gus Mcguire '24 Ben Angell '24
Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Kaiden Holt '27 [1-9] Maisie Chase '26 [1-4]
Tristan Blaylock '27 [5-9]
Clippers Leah Campbell '27 [1-2, 7-8]
Lillian Karl '27 [3-6, 9]		 Molly Keefe '27 [1-2, 5-9]
Tristan Blaylock '27 [3-4]
Hingham High School Hingham High School Sara Menesale '24 [1-9] Ellie Smith '24 [1-2]
Bran James '24 [3-9]
Habormen Julia Scipione '25 Chris Hoppe '25
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Simon Hammarlund '24 [1-9] Pickle Eville '26 [1-4]
Finn Robinson '25 [5-9]
Vineyarders Lyla Solway '24 [1-2]
Peter Miller '24 [3-9]		 Walker Brescia '24 [1-2, 5-8]
William Simmons '26 [3-4, 9]
Nantucket High School Nantucket High School Rory Murray '25 Alice O'Banion '24
Whalers Archie Ferguson '24 Brian Osario '24
St. John Paul II School St. John Paul II School Allison Coursey '25 Morgan Batchelder '24
Lions Izzy Morris '27 Donovan Hegner '25
Sturgis Charter Public School Sturgis Charter Public School No Show No Show
Navigators No Show No Show
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Patrick Shachoy '24 [1-4, 7-9]
Peter Herlihy '25 [5-6]		 Camila Diaz '24 [1-4, 7-9]
Theo Binder '25 [5-6]
Seawolves Sander Skaane '27 [1-6]
Jack Schneider '25 [7-9]		 Hudson Poor '25 [1-6]
Winchester High School Winchester High School William Macneille '25 Noah Dengler '25
Sachems Karenna Marnik '24 [1-4]
Nick Russo '25 [5-9]		 Audra Murray '24 [1-4]

Conditions — 04/28/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 74%  ·  Pressure 1021.1 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 48°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.2 kn
avg  ·  max 11.8 kn
Gusts to 25.5 kn
From SSW (211°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine8.8 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1021.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Hyannis YC: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.39 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hyannis YC by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at Hyannis YC, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →