Winchester High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.35 (fleet 0.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–9 (44%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 7–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (16 matches) the record is 7–9 against 6.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-11 | MBL Team Race Tournament | skipper | 0.56 | 0.41 | 4–8 | 4.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 2024-05-04 | Linda Juliano Girls TR Tourney '24 | skipper | 0.35 | 1.15 | 3–1 | 2.5 | +0.80 | 0.2 | 51% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Season | |||||
| SheWolf Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.5 | 0.50 |
| Sharon Invitational Fleet Race Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.0 | 0.37 |
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Hyannis, MA | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.2 | 0.13 |
| Merc Gold - 2024 Zimba MBL Championship | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.6 | 0.15 |
| MBL Team Race Tournament | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Mass States hosted by BU | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 2.26 |
| Linda Juliano Girls TR Tourney '24 | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Donald Greene Regatta | Skipper | A | 3 | 13.3 | 0.13 |
| Spring 2023 Season | |||||
| Sharon Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | 1.11 |
| Merc Gold - 2023 Zimba MBL Championship | Skipper | A | 5 | 9.2 | -0.31 |
| Donald Greene Regatta '23 | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.8 | 1.76 |
| Spring 2022 Season | |||||
| Donald Greene Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 18.5 | -1.21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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