| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Sharon High School | Varsity | 9–3 |
| 2 |  |
Wellesley High School | Varsity | 8–4 |
| 3 |  |
Duxbury High School | Dragons | 5–7 |
| 4 |  |
Winchester High School | Sachems | 4–8 |
| 5 |  |
Hingham High School | Hingham | 4–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,334 team race matches sailed before 2024-05-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 13 of 30 matches (43%) with a log-loss of 0.742 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.61 ± 0.78: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 3% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharon High School Varsity | 4 | 2.94 school +0.20, home +0.18 | Ethan Huang / Ray Luo Daniel Lu / Alex Ng Arthur Do / Henry Comeau 7–2 Chloe Chung / Susanna Bie 2–1 | 44% | 9–3 (75%) | +3.8 |
| 2 | Wellesley High School Varsity | 3 | 3.22 school −0.14 | Zach Bender / Colin Byrne 1.06 Kaitlin Hynes / Eoghan Kelley 1.13 Brady Welburn / Kathleen Gallico 1.07 | 52% | 8–4 (67%) | +1.7 |
| 3 | Duxbury High School Dragons | 2 | 3.50 school +0.49 | Derek Kirby / Abigail Weekly 1.33 Vaughan Knecht / Kylie Gallagher 1.11 Kai Boudreau / Efstathios Amoratis | 56% | 5–7 (42%) | −1.8 |
| 4 | Winchester High School Sachems | 5 | 2.62 school −0.09 | William Macneille / Skyler Marnik 1.21 Karenna Marnik / Audra Murray 0.56 Nick Russo / Noah Dengler | 36% | 4–8 (33%) | −0.3 |
| 5 | Hingham High School Hingham | 1 | 3.74 school +0.47 | Julia Scipione / Chris Hoppe 1.33 Sara Menesale / Ellie Smith 1.34 Caroline O'Hara / Gabe Synnott 0.44 | 62% | 4–8 (33%) | −3.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharon High School | 2.94 | 4.73 | 9–3 | 5.2 | +1.79 | 3.7 | 3% |
| 2 | Wellesley High School | 3.22 | 4.02 | 8–4 | 6.3 | +0.80 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 4 | Winchester High School | 2.62 | 2.48 | 4–8 | 4.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 3 | Duxbury High School | 3.50 | 2.73 | 5–7 | 6.7 | −0.77 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 5 | Hingham High School | 3.74 | 2.19 | 4–8 | 7.5 | −1.54 | 3.0 | 99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Do | Sharon High School | 0.60 | 2.47 | 7–2 | 4.1 | +1.87 | 2.9 | 5% |
| Daniel Lu | Sharon High School | 0.90 | 2.69 | 9–3 | 5.2 | +1.79 | 3.7 | 3% |
| Zach Bender | Wellesley High School | 1.06 | 1.87 | 8–4 | 6.3 | +0.80 | 0.8 | 24% |
| Kaitlin Hynes | Wellesley High School | 1.13 | 1.93 | 8–4 | 6.3 | +0.80 | 0.8 | 24% |
| Brady Welburn | Wellesley High School | 1.07 | 1.88 | 8–4 | 6.3 | +0.80 | 0.8 | 24% |
| William Macneille | Winchester High School | 1.21 | 1.06 | 4–8 | 4.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Karenna Marnik | Winchester High School | 0.56 | 0.41 | 4–8 | 4.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Nick Russo | Winchester High School | 0.79 | 0.64 | 4–8 | 4.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 68% |
| Kai Boudreau | Duxbury High School | 0.27 | -0.51 | 5–7 | 6.7 | −0.77 | 0.8 | 91% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hingham | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Sachems | 2-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Hingham | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Sachems | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hingham | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Sachems | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Hingham | 2-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sachems | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Dragons | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sachems | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Hingham | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Sachems | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Hingham | 2-4-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 1-3-5 DSQ |
| 16 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Sachems | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Hingham | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Sachems | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hingham | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sachems | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hingham | 3-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Sachems | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hingham | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sachems | 1-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Sachems | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Hingham | 1-4-6 |
| 29 | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 DSQ |
| 30 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hingham | 3-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Sharon High School | Varsity | Arthur Do '25 Chloe Chung '25 Daniel Lu '24 Ethan Huang '26 |
Henry Comeau '25 Susanna Bie '25 Alex Ng '27 Ray Luo '25 |
|
Wellesley High School | Varsity | Brady Welburn '24 Kaitlin Hynes '25 Zach Bender '24 |
Kathleen Gallico '25 Eoghan Kelley '24 Colin Byrne '24 |
|
Duxbury High School | Dragons | Derek Kirby '25 Kai Boudreau '24 Vaughan Knecht '25 |
Abigail Weekly '25 Efstathios Amoratis '25 Kylie Gallagher '25 |
|
Winchester High School | Sachems | Karenna Marnik '24 Nick Russo '25 William Macneille '25 |
Audra Murray '24 Noah Dengler '25 Skyler Marnik '25 |
|
Hingham High School | Hingham | Caroline O'Hara '25 Julia Scipione '25 Sara Menesale '24 |
Gabe Synnott '24 Chris Hoppe '25 Ellie Smith '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
