Duxbury High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.17 (fleet 1.86) | 134 of 231 | +0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–16 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 11–8 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 5–7 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–1 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 22–16 against 19.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-17 | MBL TR Tournament | skipper | 1.43 | 2.90 | 8–2 | 5.7 | +1.47 | 1.7 | 12% |
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.47 | 0.95 | 3–6 | 3.7 | −0.52 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2024-05-11 | MBL Team Race Tournament | skipper | 1.33 | 0.56 | 5–7 | 6.7 | −0.77 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2023-05-21 | MBL Team Race Tournament | skipper | 1.13 | 3.53 | 6–1 | 3.6 | +2.40 | 2.9 | 6% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Derek Kirby |  Roger Williams University |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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