| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Duxbury High School | Dragons | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
Hingham High School | Hingham | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Wellesley High School | Varsity | 3–4 |
| 4 |  |
Winchester High School | Sachems | 3–2 |
| 5 |  |
St. Johns Prep | Varsity | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Lincoln Sudbury RHS | Warriors | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,287 team race matches sailed before 2023-05-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 10 of 18 matches (56%) with a log-loss of 0.562 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.10 ± 0.65: a typical event, more orderly than 47% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duxbury High School Dragons | 4 | 2.82 home +0.14 | Derek Kirby / Melena Amoratis Ella Notis / Andrew Tenney Vaughan Knecht / Bronson Lojko | 51% | 6–1 (86%) | +2.4 |
| 2 | Hingham High School Hingham | 3 | 2.89 school +0.36 | Carter Driggs / Gabe Synnott Julia Scipione / Caroline O'Hara 1.14 Sara Menesale / Ellie Smith 1.21 | 51% | 5–2 (71%) | +1.4 |
| 3 | Wellesley High School Varsity | 2 | 3.48 | Zach Bender / Summer Mills 1.25 Brady Welburn / Eoghan Kelley Kaitlin Hynes / Nate Blackett 1.06 3–2 Kaitlin Hynes / Genna Gallico 1.16 0–2 | 65% | 3–4 (43%) | −1.6 |
| 4 | Winchester High School Sachems | 1 | 3.65 school −0.14 | Carter Knight / Audra Murray 1.61 William Macneille / Noah Dengler Michael Lanz / Benjamin Volchok 1.10 | 71% | 3–2 (60%) | −0.6 |
| 5 | St. Johns Prep Varsity | 6 | 1.43 | Jack Morgan / Jeremiah Mccarthy Leo Giard / Conor Mcgeown Gabe Samra / Robert Yim | 26% | 1–4 (20%) | −0.3 |
| 6 | Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors | 5 | 1.51 school +0.08 | Mikhail Pevunov / Harvey Andrews No One / No One No One / No One | 28% | 0–5 (0%) | −1.4 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duxbury High School | 2.82 | 5.22 | 6–1 | 3.6 | +2.40 | 2.9 | 6% |
| 2 | Hingham High School | 2.89 | 4.10 | 5–2 | 3.6 | +1.21 | 0.9 | 24% |
| 5 | St. Johns Prep | 1.43 | 0.95 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 4 | Winchester High School | 3.65 | 2.96 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.70 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 3 | Wellesley High School | 3.48 | 2.23 | 3–4 | 4.6 | −1.26 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 6 | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 1.51 | -1.49 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Notis | Duxbury High School | 0.31 | 2.71 | 6–1 | 3.6 | +2.40 | 2.9 | 6% |
| Carter Driggs | Hingham High School | 0.09 | 1.30 | 5–2 | 3.6 | +1.21 | 0.9 | 24% |
| Jack Morgan | St. Johns Prep | 0.96 | 0.48 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Gabe Samra | St. Johns Prep | -0.03 | -0.51 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Carter Knight | Winchester High School | 1.61 | 0.91 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.70 | 0.2 | 86% |
| William Macneille | Winchester High School | 0.93 | 0.23 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.70 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Michael Lanz | Winchester High School | 1.10 | 0.40 | 3–2 | 3.6 | −0.70 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Zach Bender | Wellesley High School | 1.25 | -0.01 | 3–4 | 4.6 | −1.26 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Kaitlin Hynes | Wellesley High School | 1.06 | -0.20 | 3–4 | 4.6 | −1.26 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Brady Welburn | Wellesley High School | 1.00 | -0.26 | 3–4 | 4.6 | −1.26 | 1.1 | 95% |
| Mikhail Pevunov | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 0.25 | -2.75 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| No One | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 0.48 | -2.52 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
| No One | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 0.48 | -2.52 | 0–5 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.2 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Duxbury High School | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 73% | |
| 1 | 2 | Hingham High School | Wellesley High School | 38% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | Winchester High School | St. Johns Prep | 86% | |
| 1 | 4 | Wellesley High School | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 82% | |
| 1 | 5 | Winchester High School | Duxbury High School | 67% | |
| 1 | 6 | Hingham High School | St. Johns Prep | 76% | |
| 1 | 7 | Wellesley High School | Winchester High School | 46% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | Hingham High School | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 74% | |
| 1 | 9 | Duxbury High School | St. Johns Prep | 74% | |
| 1 | 10 | Hingham High School | Winchester High School | 35% | upset |
| 1 | 11 | Duxbury High School | Wellesley High School | 38% | upset |
| 1 | 12 | St. Johns Prep | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 48% | upset |
| 1 | 13 | Duxbury High School | Hingham High School | 50% | upset |
| 1 | 14 | Winchester High School | Lincoln Sudbury RHS | 84% | |
| 1 | 15 | Wellesley High School | St. Johns Prep | 82% | |
| 3 | 16 | Duxbury High School | Hingham High School | 50% | |
| 3 | 17 | Duxbury High School | Wellesley High School | 40% | upset |
| 3 | 18 | Hingham High School | Wellesley High School | 38% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 2 | |
Hingham | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Sachems | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 5 | |
Sachems | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Dragons | 2-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Hingham | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Sachems | 1-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Hingham | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 9 | |
Dragons | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Hingham | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Sachems | 3-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Dragons | 2-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 DSQ |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Dragons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hingham | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Sachems | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Warriors | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Dragons | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hingham | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Hingham | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Duxbury High School | Dragons | Derek Kirby '25 Ella Notis '23 Vaughan Knecht '25 |
Melena Amoratis '23 Andrew Tenney '23 Bronson Lojko '23 |
|
Hingham High School | Hingham | Carter Driggs '28 Julia Scipione '25 Sara Menesale '24 |
Gabe Synnott '24 Caroline O'Hara '25 Ellie Smith '24 |
|
Wellesley High School | Varsity | Brady Welburn '24 Kaitlin Hynes '25 Zach Bender '24 |
Eoghan Kelley '24 Nate Blackett '24 Genna Gallico '23 Summer Mills '23 |
|
Winchester High School | Sachems | Carter Knight '23 Michael Lanz '25 William Macneille '25 |
Audra Murray '24 Benjamin Volchok '24 Noah Dengler '25 |
|
St. Johns Prep | Varsity | Gabe Samra '26 Jack Morgan '26 Leo Giard '25 |
Robert Yim '25 Jeremiah Mccarthy '26 Conor Mcgeown '26 |
|
Lincoln Sudbury RHS | Warriors | Mikhail Pevunov '24 No One '23 |
Harvey Andrews '24 No One '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
