St. Johns Prep '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.12 (fleet 1.81) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–22 (24%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–8 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 1–4 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (29 matches) the record is 7–22 against 8.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.33 | 1.91 | 4–10 | 3.0 | +0.58 | 0.3 | 34% |
| 2025-05-17 | MBL TR Tournament | skipper | 1.14 | -0.01 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −1.16 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2023-05-21 | MBL Team Race Tournament | skipper | 0.96 | 0.48 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.48 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| 2026 NESSA O’Day Qualifier - Sharon | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.0 | 1.97 |
| 2026 NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Donald Green Regatta 26 | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.7 | 2.25 |
| Carl Zimba MBL Champs - 420A | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.0 | 1.84 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Quincy | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.0 | 1.39 |
| MBL TR Tournament | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| 420A - 2025 Zimba MBL Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.0 | 1.69 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Mass States hosted by BU | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.0 | 1.39 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Lakevile, CT | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.4 | 0.58 |
| MBL Team Race Tournament | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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