2026 NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy)

HostSt. George's
Date05/02/2026
TypeDistrict Tournament
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Greenwich Academy	Gators	14–0
2	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Falcons	9–5
3	Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	9–5
4	East Greenwich High School	Avengers	6–8
4	Dartmouth High School	Sailing	6–8
4	Darien High School	Blue Wave	6–8
7	St. Johns Prep	Eagles	4–10
8	Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,699 team race matches sailed before 2026-05-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 56 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.603 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.57 ± 0.31: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 15% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Greenwich Academy Gators	2	5.49 school +0.49	Helena Borcherding / Atley Dimsey 2.16 Sophia Alexopoulos / Tess Azmak 1.76 Taylor Nanni / Isla Van Biesen 0.92	77%	14–0 (100%)	+3.2
2	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	5	3.92 school −0.05	Cameron Cooleen / Piper Youngs 1.15 Amelia Woodworth / Maeve Kenney 1.94 Reid Smith / Josh Stupak 0.74	50%	9–5 (64%)	+2.0
3	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	1	5.66 school +0.25	Avery Beck / Caroline Collins 1.92 Glen Foster / Ollie Ennico 1.98 Hayes Cooper / Colin Verrengia	80%	9–5 (64%)	−2.1
4	East Greenwich High School Avengers	4	3.97 school +0.72	Colin Auvil / Luna Vivas 1.46 Griffin Mason / Nina Suellentrop 0.99 Sophia Joyce / Vivianna Torres 0.53 6–6 Sophia Joyce / Caleb Prisco 0.53 0–2	51%	6–8 (43%)	−1.1
4	Dartmouth High School Sailing	6	3.75 school −0.35	Sam Sperry / Lukas Prout 1.96 Finn Sperry / Evan Sargent 1.43 Phoebe Murray / Leila Hiojazi 0.50	47%	6–8 (43%)	−0.5
4	Darien High School Blue Wave	7	2.39 school −0.27	Charlotte Straden / Colin Casey 1.19 Chloe Dodd / Ella Seymour 0.87 Liam Casey / Selen Yasanliel 0.49	23%	6–8 (43%)	+2.7
7	St. Johns Prep Eagles	8	2.23 school −0.16	Jack Morgan / Conor Mcgeown 1.36 Jeremiah Mccarthy / Ben Fava 0.70 John Gabriel / Davis Ferreira	21%	4–10 (29%)	+1.1
8	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	3	3.99	Db Murray / Brayden Whorf Thomas Svencer / Marina Morris Grafton Hamilton / Ava Bannister	51%	2–12 (14%)	−5.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Greenwich Academy	5.49	8.49	14–0	10.8	≥+3.00	4.9	2%
4	Darien High School	2.39	3.72	6–8	3.3	+1.33	2.1	7%
2	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	3.92	4.82	9–5	7.0	+0.91	1.0	19%
7	St. Johns Prep	2.23	2.84	4–10	2.9	+0.61	0.4	32%
4	Dartmouth High School	3.75	3.51	6–8	6.5	−0.24	0.1	73%
4	East Greenwich High School	3.97	3.45	6–8	7.1	−0.51	0.3	84%
3	Greens Farms Academy	5.66	4.55	9–5	11.1	−1.11	1.4	96%
8	Marblehead High School	3.99	1.21	2–12	7.2	−2.78	7.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Sophia Alexopoulos	Greenwich Academy	1.76	4.76	14–0	10.8	≥+3.00	4.9	2%
Taylor Nanni	Greenwich Academy	0.92	3.92	14–0	10.8	≥+3.00	4.9	2%
Charlotte Straden	Darien High School	1.19	2.52	6–8	3.3	+1.33	2.1	7%
Chloe Dodd	Darien High School	0.87	2.20	6–8	3.3	+1.33	2.1	7%
Liam Casey	Darien High School	0.49	1.82	6–8	3.3	+1.33	2.1	7%
Amelia Woodworth	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	1.94	2.84	9–5	7.0	+0.91	1.0	19%
Reid Smith	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	0.74	1.65	9–5	7.0	+0.91	1.0	19%
Jack Morgan	St. Johns Prep	1.36	1.97	4–10	2.9	+0.61	0.4	32%
John Gabriel	St. Johns Prep	0.17	0.78	4–10	2.9	+0.61	0.4	32%
Sam Sperry	Dartmouth High School	1.96	1.72	6–8	6.5	−0.24	0.1	73%
Finn Sperry	Dartmouth High School	1.43	1.19	6–8	6.5	−0.24	0.1	73%
Phoebe Murray	Dartmouth High School	0.50	0.26	6–8	6.5	−0.24	0.1	73%
Griffin Mason	East Greenwich High School	0.99	0.48	6–8	7.1	−0.51	0.3	84%
Sophia Joyce	East Greenwich High School	0.53	0.01	6–8	7.1	−0.51	0.3	84%
Avery Beck	Greens Farms Academy	1.92	0.81	9–5	11.1	−1.11	1.4	96%
Hayes Cooper	Greens Farms Academy	1.46	0.35	9–5	11.1	−1.11	1.4	96%
Grafton Hamilton	Marblehead High School	0.74	-2.04	2–12	7.2	−2.78	7.3	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Marblehead High School	54%
1	2	Greenwich Academy	Dartmouth High School	80%
1	3	East Greenwich High School	Darien High School	75%
1	4	Greens Farms Academy	St. Johns Prep	94%
1	5	Greenwich Academy	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	77%
1	6	East Greenwich High School	Marblehead High School	51%
1	7	Dartmouth High School	St. Johns Prep	76%
1	8	Greens Farms Academy	Darien High School	93%
1	9	Greenwich Academy	East Greenwich High School	78%
1	10	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	St. Johns Prep	79%
1	11	Darien High School	Marblehead High School	24%	upset
1	12	Greens Farms Academy	Dartmouth High School	82%
1	13	East Greenwich High School	St. Johns Prep	79%
1	14	Greenwich Academy	Darien High School	92%
1	15	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Dartmouth High School	53%
1	16	Greens Farms Academy	Marblehead High School	80%
1	17	Darien High School	St. Johns Prep	53%
1	18	Dartmouth High School	East Greenwich High School	46%	upset
1	19	Greenwich Academy	Marblehead High School	76%
1	20	Greens Farms Academy	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	80%
1	21	Darien High School	Dartmouth High School	26%	upset
1	22	St. Johns Prep	Marblehead High School	20%	upset
1	23	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	East Greenwich High School	49%	upset
1	24	Greenwich Academy	Greens Farms Academy	47%	upset
1	25	Dartmouth High School	Marblehead High School	45%	upset
1	26	Darien High School	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	23%	upset
1	27	Greenwich Academy	St. Johns Prep	93%
1	28	Greens Farms Academy	East Greenwich High School	78%
2	29	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Marblehead High School	48%	upset
2	30	Greenwich Academy	Dartmouth High School	79%
2	31	Darien High School	East Greenwich High School	22%	upset
2	32	Greens Farms Academy	St. Johns Prep	93%
2	33	Greenwich Academy	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	77%
2	34	East Greenwich High School	Marblehead High School	49%	upset
2	35	Dartmouth High School	St. Johns Prep	77%
2	36	Greens Farms Academy	Darien High School	93%
2	37	Greenwich Academy	East Greenwich High School	77%
2	38	St. Johns Prep	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	21%	upset
2	39	Marblehead High School	Darien High School	79%
2	40	Dartmouth High School	Greens Farms Academy	19%	upset
2	41	St. Johns Prep	East Greenwich High School	20%	upset
2	42	Greenwich Academy	Darien High School	92%
2	43	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Dartmouth High School	53%
2	44	Greens Farms Academy	Marblehead High School	77%
2	45	Darien High School	St. Johns Prep	53%
2	46	East Greenwich High School	Dartmouth High School	55%
2	47	Greenwich Academy	Marblehead High School	75%
2	48	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Greens Farms Academy	21%	upset
2	49	Dartmouth High School	Darien High School	75%
2	50	St. Johns Prep	Marblehead High School	19%	upset
2	51	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	East Greenwich High School	48%	upset
2	52	Greenwich Academy	Greens Farms Academy	48%	upset
2	53	Marblehead High School	Dartmouth High School	56%
2	54	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Darien High School	77%
2	55	Greenwich Academy	St. Johns Prep	93%
2	56	East Greenwich High School	Greens Farms Academy	23%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Falcons	1-2-4	def.	Fishwagons	3-5-6
2	Gators	2-3-5	def.	Sailing	1-4-6
3	Avengers	1-3-6	def.	Blue Wave	2-4-5
4	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
5	Gators	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
6	Avengers	2-3-5	def.	Fishwagons	1-4-6
7	Sailing	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
8	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Blue Wave	3-4-5
9	Gators	1-2-6	def.	Avengers	3-4-5
10	Falcons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
11	Blue Wave	1-3-4	def.	Fishwagons	2-5-6
12	Dragons	1-3-5	def.	Sailing	2-4-6
13	Avengers	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
14	Gators	1-2-5	def.	Blue Wave	3-4-6
15	Falcons	2-3-5	def.	Sailing	1-4-6
16	Dragons	1-2-6	def.	Fishwagons	3-4-5
17	Blue Wave	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
18	Sailing	1-2-6	def.	Avengers	3-4-5
19	Gators	1-2-5	def.	Fishwagons	3-4-6
20	Dragons	1-3-6	def.	Falcons	2-4-5
21	Blue Wave	1-2-5	def.	Sailing	3-4-6
22	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Fishwagons	4-5-6
23	Falcons	1-2-5	def.	Avengers	3-4-6
24	Gators	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
25	Sailing	1-2-3	def.	Fishwagons	4-5-6
26	Blue Wave	1-2-5	def.	Falcons	3-4-6
27	Gators	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
28	Dragons	1-3-4	def.	Avengers	2-5-6
29	Falcons	1-2-4	def.	Fishwagons	3-5-6
30	Gators	2-3-4	def.	Sailing	1-5-6
31	Blue Wave	2-3-5	def.	Avengers	1-4-6
32	Dragons	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
33	Gators	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
34	Avengers	1-2-4	def.	Fishwagons	3-5-6
35	Sailing	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
36	Dragons	2-3-4	def.	Blue Wave	1-5-6
37	Gators	1-3-4	def.	Avengers	2-5-6
38	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Falcons	2-3-6
39	Fishwagons	1-2-4	def.	Blue Wave	3-5-6
40	Sailing	2-3-4	def.	Dragons	1-5-6
41	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Avengers	2-4-6
42	Gators	1-2-3	def.	Blue Wave	4-5-6
43	Falcons	1-2-5	def.	Sailing	3-4-6
44	Dragons	1-4-5	def.	Fishwagons	2-3-6
45	Blue Wave	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
46	Avengers	2-3-4	def.	Sailing	1-5-6
47	Gators	1-2-5	def.	Fishwagons	3-4-6
48	Falcons	1-2-4	def.	Dragons	3-5-6
49	Sailing	1-2-5	def.	Blue Wave	3-4-6
50	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Fishwagons	3-4-6
51	Falcons	1-2-5	def.	Avengers	3-4-6
52	Gators	1-2-6	def.	Dragons	3-4-5
53	Fishwagons	1-2-6	def.	Sailing	3-4-5
54	Falcons	1-2-3	def.	Blue Wave	4-5-6
55	Gators	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
56	Avengers	1-3-5	def.	Dragons	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Greenwich Academy	Gators	Helena Borcherding '26 Sophia Alexopoulos '28 Taylor Nanni '27	Atley Dimsey '27 Tess Azmak '27 Isla Van Biesen '27
Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Falcons	Amelia Woodworth '27 Cameron Cooleen '26 Reid Smith '27	Maeve Kenney '28 Piper Youngs '29 Josh Stupak '26
Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	Avery Beck '27 Glen Foster '26 Hayes Cooper '27	Caroline Collins '26 Ollie Ennico '28 Colin Verrengia '27
East Greenwich High School	Avengers	Colin Auvil '26 Griffin Mason '28 Sophia Joyce '27	Luna Vivas '29 Nina Suellentrop '28 Vivianna Torres '27 Caleb Prisco '28
Dartmouth High School	Sailing	Finn Sperry '26 Phoebe Murray '26 Sam Sperry '26	Evan Sargent '26 Leila Hiojazi '26 Lukas Prout '26
Darien High School	Blue Wave	Charlotte Straden '27 Chloe Dodd '29 Liam Casey '27	Colin Casey '27 Ella Seymour '26 Selen Yasanliel '26
St. Johns Prep	Eagles	Jack Morgan '26 Jeremiah Mccarthy '26 John Gabriel '28	Conor Mcgeown '26 Ben Fava '29 Davis Ferreira '27
Marblehead High School	Fishwagons	Db Murray '26 Grafton Hamilton '28 Thomas Svencer '26	Brayden Whorf '28 Ava Bannister '29 Marina Morris '29

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →