Marblehead High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.11 (fleet 1.90) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.07 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 2–12 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 2–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 2–12 against 6.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.18 | -1.42 | 2–12 | 6.8 | −2.60 | 6.3 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| 2026 NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| 2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Portland, ME | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.2 | 2.43 |
| 2026 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship(O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.8 | 2.10 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Duxbury Bay Maritime School Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 8.0 | 1.33 |
| 2025 Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.8 | 2.19 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Quincy | Skipper | B | 7 | 2.9 | 1.77 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.2 | 1.83 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Casco Bay Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.0 | 2.31 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Mass States hosted by BU | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.5 | 1.95 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Fall FunFest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | A | 7 | 8.4 | 0.80 |
| Duxbury Bay Maritime School Fall Invitational | Skipper | A | 2 | 11.5 | -0.68 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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