Dartmouth High School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.79 (fleet 2.94) | 65 of 231 | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–37 (41%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 6–8 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–11 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 10–11 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 7–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (63 matches) the record is 26–37 against 29.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 2026 NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.92 | 1.57 | 6–8 | 6.8 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 2.00 | 4.01 | 3–11 | 0.8 | +2.01 | 2.9 | 4% |
| 2024-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.86 | 0.85 | 5–9 | 7.3 | −1.01 | 1.3 | 95% |
| 2024-04-06 | Dorchester Bay Super Saturday | skipper | 1.71 | 1.28 | 5–2 | 5.4 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2023-05-06 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament(Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.60 | 0.56 | 7–7 | 9.4 | −1.03 | 1.4 | 96% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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