| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Milton Academy | Mustangs | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Dartmouth High School | Sailing | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Marthas Vineyard RHS | Vineyarders | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Wellesley High School | Varsity | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Sharon High School | Varsity | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Duxbury High School | Dragons | 3–4 |
| 7 |  |
Boston College High School | Eagles | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Manchester/Essex RHS | Hornets | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,570 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-06, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 23 of 28 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.467 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.29 ± 0.45: a typical event, more orderly than 62% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Milton Academy | 3.84 | 6.84 | 7–0 | 5.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 11% |
| 6 | Duxbury High School | 1.27 | 2.22 | 3–4 | 2.0 | +0.95 | 0.6 | 31% |
| 3 | Marthas Vineyard RHS | 2.91 | 3.81 | 5–2 | 4.1 | +0.90 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 5 | Sharon High School | 1.44 | 2.24 | 3–4 | 2.1 | +0.80 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 4 | Wellesley High School | 3.13 | 2.82 | 4–3 | 4.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2 | Dartmouth High School | 4.02 | 3.59 | 5–2 | 5.4 | −0.43 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 7 | Boston College High School | 2.04 | -0.09 | 1–6 | 2.9 | −2.13 | 2.1 | 99% |
| 8 | Manchester/Essex RHS | 1.25 | -1.75 | 0–7 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 3.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Sailing | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vineyarders | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailing | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Eagles | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Vineyarders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Sailing | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Vineyarders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Sailing | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Vineyarders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Vineyarders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Sailing | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vineyarders | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Dragons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Sailing | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Vineyarders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hornets | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Mustangs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Sailing | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Eagles | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
