Milton Academy '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.77 (fleet 1.26) | 177 of 231 | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 20–15 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 7–7 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 13–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (35 matches) the record is 20–15 against 20.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 0.96 | 0.68 | 7–7 | 7.7 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2024-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.18 | 0.50 | 6–8 | 7.5 | −0.68 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2024-04-06 | Dorchester Bay Super Saturday | skipper | 1.06 | 4.06 | 7–0 | 5.2 | ≥+3.00 | 2.8 | 11% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.2 | 0.01 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Quincy, MA | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 1.38 |
| Dorchester Bay Super Saturday | Skipper | TR | 7 | 100% | — |
| 2024 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day) | Skipper | A | 2 | 14.0 | -2.11 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Invitational | Skipper | B | 5 | 13.8 | -0.71 |
| O'Day Qualifier - Portland, ME | Skipper | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.5 | 1.53 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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