Wellesley High School '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.85 (fleet 1.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 25–26 (49%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 3 | 16–12 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 6–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (51 matches) the record is 25–26 against 24.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.16 | 1.47 | 4–5 | 3.6 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2024-05-11 | MBL Team Race Tournament | skipper | 1.06 | 1.87 | 8–4 | 6.3 | +0.80 | 0.8 | 24% |
| 2024-04-06 | Dorchester Bay Super Saturday | skipper | 1.02 | 0.72 | 4–3 | 4.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2023-05-21 | MBL Team Race Tournament | skipper | 1.25 | -0.01 | 3–4 | 4.6 | −1.26 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.09 | 1.32 | 6–10 | 5.4 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 47% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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