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NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy)

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 13–2
2 Milton Academy Milton Academy Mustangs 12–3
3 Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Varsity 10–5
4 Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Varsity 5–10
5 Lincoln Academy Lincoln Academy Eagles 5–7
6 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3–9
7 Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Sailing 0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 8,622 team race matches sailed before 2022-05-14, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 49 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.487 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.30 ± 0.35: a typical event, more orderly than 62% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Fairfield Ludlowe High School
Falcons		15.45
school +0.17		Tyler Nash / Tate Theordorson
Cole Woodworth / Bradley Kirkpatrick 1.83
Anabelle Woodworth / Henry Roper		71%13–2 (87%)+2.3
2Milton Academy
Mustangs		35.08
school +0.28		Emma Wang / Lilly Ladd
Jackie Ruggieri / Emma Zuccotti
Ryan Mcgauley / Cate Anderson		64%12–3 (80%)+2.3
3Greenwich Academy
Varsity		44.68Harned Ellie / Saanvi Gupta
Kit Harned / Katheryn Mcgranahan
Chang Tatum / Honour Russell 7–2
Chang Tatum / Grayson Stengel 3–3		57%10–5 (67%)+1.5
4Wellesley High School
Varsity		53.61
school −0.08		Jack Welburn / Brady Welburn
Zach Bender / Summer Mills
Christopher Macken / Alexa Quinn		34%6–10 (38%)+0.6
5Lincoln Academy
Eagles		25.04Arden Carleton / Kate Mason
Toby Clarkson / Piper Carleton 1.85
Bobby Clarkson / Otto Schoenthal 1.42		67%5–8 (38%)−3.7
6Marthas Vineyard RHS
Vineyarders		72.60
school −0.29		Sam Riley / Jocelyn Balinuas
Yossi Monahan / Juliet Morse
Simon Hammarlund / Henry Coogan		21%3–9 (25%)+0.5
7Dartmouth High School
Sailing		63.13
school +0.08		Charlie Fairfax / Ella Gibson 1.55
Will Fairfax / Dominique Spinola
Hunter Downing / Nick Carvahlo		30%0–12 (0%)−3.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Fairfield Ludlowe High School5.456.7813–210.7+1.331.614%
2Milton Academy5.086.2012–39.7+1.121.414%
3Greenwich Academy4.685.3110–58.5+0.630.529%
6Marthas Vineyard RHS2.602.943–92.5+0.340.147%
4Wellesley High School3.613.846–105.4+0.230.147%
5Lincoln Academy5.043.335–88.7−1.713.699%
7Dartmouth High School3.130.130–123.6≤−3.005.9>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Anabelle WoodworthFairfield Ludlowe High School1.132.4613–210.7+1.331.614%
Jackie RuggieriMilton Academy0.932.0512–39.7+1.121.414%
Harned EllieGreenwich Academy2.052.6810–58.5+0.630.529%
Chang TatumGreenwich Academy1.161.7910–58.5+0.630.529%
Yossi MonahanMarthas Vineyard RHS0.350.683–92.5+0.340.147%
Zach BenderWellesley High School1.091.326–105.4+0.230.147%
Arden CarletonLincoln Academy1.65-0.065–88.7−1.713.699%
Hunter DowningDartmouth High School0.55-2.450–123.6≤−3.005.9>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Greenwich AcademyDartmouth High School76%
12Milton AcademyWellesley High School74%
13Lincoln AcademyMarthas Vineyard RHS89%
14Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolDartmouth High School84%
15Greenwich AcademyLincoln Academy40%upset
16Milton AcademyMarthas Vineyard RHS87%
17Wellesley High SchoolDartmouth High School57%
18Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolLincoln Academy55%
19Greenwich AcademyMarthas Vineyard RHS83%
110Wellesley High SchoolLincoln Academy23%upset
111Milton AcademyDartmouth High School81%
112Greenwich AcademyFairfield Ludlowe High School37%upset
113Milton AcademyLincoln Academy49%upset
114Wellesley High SchoolGreenwich Academy30%upset
115Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS90%
116Milton AcademyGreenwich Academy57%
117Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolWellesley High School81%
118Marthas Vineyard RHSDartmouth High School40%upset
119Milton AcademyFairfield Ludlowe High School43%upset
120Lincoln AcademyDartmouth High School81%
121Wellesley High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS68%
143Wellesley High SchoolLincoln Academy25%upset
222Greenwich AcademyDartmouth High School77%
223Milton AcademyWellesley High School76%
224Lincoln AcademyMarthas Vineyard RHS87%
225Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolDartmouth High School85%
226Greenwich AcademyLincoln Academy44%upset
227Milton AcademyMarthas Vineyard RHS87%
228Wellesley High SchoolDartmouth High School58%
229Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolLincoln Academy58%
230Greenwich AcademyMarthas Vineyard RHS83%
231Lincoln AcademyWellesley High School75%
232Milton AcademyDartmouth High School81%
233Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolGreenwich Academy64%
234Milton AcademyLincoln Academy51%
235Greenwich AcademyWellesley High School70%
236Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS90%
237Milton AcademyGreenwich Academy58%
238Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolWellesley High School81%
239Marthas Vineyard RHSDartmouth High School40%upset
240Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolMilton Academy57%
241Lincoln AcademyDartmouth High School80%
242Marthas Vineyard RHSWellesley High School33%upset
344Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolGreenwich Academy64%
345Milton AcademyWellesley High School76%
346Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolWellesley High School81%
347Greenwich AcademyMilton Academy42%upset
348Greenwich AcademyWellesley High School70%
349Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolMilton Academy57%
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Greenwich Academy Varsity 1-2-3 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 4-5-6
2 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-3-4 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 2-5-6
3 Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-3-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2-5-6
4 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 3-4-5
5 Greenwich Academy Varsity 1-2-6 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 3-4-5
6 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-2-3 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 4-5-6
7 Wellesley High School Varsity 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 1-5-6
8 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-6 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 3-4-5
9 Greenwich Academy Varsity 1-3-6 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2-4-5
10 Wellesley High School Varsity 1-2-6 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 3-4-5
11 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-2-5 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 3-4-6
12 Greenwich Academy Varsity 1-2-6 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 3-4-5
13 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-2-4 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 3-5-6
14 Wellesley High School Varsity 1-2-6 def. Greenwich Academy Varsity 3-4-5
15 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-5-6
16 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-2-5 def. Greenwich Academy Varsity 3-4-6
17 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-4 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 3-5-6
18 Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2-3-5 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 1-4-6
19 Milton Academy Mustangs 2-3-4 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-5-6
20 Lincoln Academy Eagles 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 1-5-6
21 Wellesley High School Varsity 1-2-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-5-6
43 Wellesley High School Varsity 1-3-6 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 2-4-5
22 Greenwich Academy Varsity 1-2-4 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 3-5-6
23 Milton Academy Mustangs 2-3-4 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 1-5-6
24 Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-2-5 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-4-6
25 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 1-5-6
26 Greenwich Academy Varsity 1-2-3 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 4-5-6
27 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-2-6 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-4-5
28 Wellesley High School Varsity 1-3-4 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 2-5-6
29 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-4-5 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 2-3-6
30 Greenwich Academy Varsity 1-2-3 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 4-5-6
31 Lincoln Academy Eagles 2-3-5 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 1-4-6
32 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 3-4-5
33 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-3-5 def. Greenwich Academy Varsity 2-4-6
34 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-2-5 def. Lincoln Academy Eagles 3-4-6
35 Greenwich Academy Varsity 1-3-4 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 2-5-6
36 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-3 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 4-5-6
37 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-3-6 def. Greenwich Academy Varsity 2-4-5
38 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 2-3-5 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 1-4-6
39 Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2-3-4 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 1-5-6
40 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-4-5 def. Milton Academy Mustangs 2-3-6
41 Lincoln Academy Eagles 1-2-6 def. Dartmouth High School Sailing 3-4-5
42 Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1-3-5 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 2-4-6
44 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-4 def. Greenwich Academy Varsity 3-5-6
45 Milton Academy Mustangs 1-2-6 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 3-4-5
46 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-4 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 3-5-6
47 Greenwich Academy Varsity 1-2-6 def. Milton Academy Mustangs 3-4-5
48 Greenwich Academy Varsity 2-3-5 def. Wellesley High School Varsity 1-4-6
49 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-6 def. Milton Academy Mustangs 3-4-5

Conditions — 05/14/2022 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1018.3 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.1 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 20.6 kn
From SSW (209°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine8.0 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1018.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.11)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →