Fairfield Ludlowe High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.22 (fleet 2.01) | 130 of 231 | −0.02 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–31 (34%) as crew 21–7 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 9–10 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 7–21 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | — | 21–7 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (75 matches) the record is 37–38 against 36.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-03 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.72 | 0.82 | 8–6 | 10.0 | −0.89 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2025-04-30 | FCSL 2025 Gold Cup | skipper | 1.50 | 0.16 | 1–4 | 1.8 | −1.34 | 0.6 | 93% |
| 2024-05-18 | 2024 NATIONAL INVITATIONAL TOURNAMENT (NIT) | skipper | 1.07 | 2.56 | 6–8 | 3.3 | +1.49 | 2.4 | 6% |
| 2024-05-04 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Presidents Trophy) | skipper | 1.00 | -1.55 | 1–13 | 3.8 | −2.56 | 3.5 | >99% |
| 2022-05-21 | National Invitational Tournament (NIT) | crew | 2.06 | 2.51 | 8–5 | 7.0 | +0.45 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | crew | 1.83 | 3.16 | 13–2 | 10.7 | +1.33 | 1.6 | 14% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Bradley Kirkpatrick |  Dartmouth College |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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