National Invitational Tournament (NIT)

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 8,745 team race matches sailed before 2022-05-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 66 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.494 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.32 ± 0.32: a typical event, more orderly than 64% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tabor Academy Seawolves	4	7.03 school +0.26	Sophia Peck / Jack Schneider 1.95 Jonnie Ciffolillo / Carter Riggs 2.42 Wyatt Bischoff / Elizabeth Elkinson 2.19	60%	12–1 (92%)	+4.2
2	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	8	5.99 school +0.31	Griffin Gigliotti / Max Laferriere 2.20 Ava Stevens / Andrew Wagner 8–3 Katherine Mcnamara / Whitney Burton 2.24 7–3 Katherine Mcnamara / Ava Stevens 2.37 1–1 Harrison Stevens / Whitney Burton 1–1 Katherine Mcnamara / Hadley Salem 2.24 1–0	39%	9–4 (69%)	+3.9
3	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	3	7.20 school +0.10	Hugh Carty / Christina Pierce 2.75 Owen Macwilliams / Madeline Washburn 2.23 Parker Herman / Ava Farley 2.16 5–1 Ava Farley / Taylor Collison 1.97 1–4 Parker Herman / Taylor Collison 2.10 3–0	61%	9–5 (64%)	+0.4
4	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	1	7.86 school +0.24	Henry Allgeier / Emily Britt 3.12 7–5 Sean Trudell / Sabrina Casagrande 2.61 6–3 Rebecca Schill / Marin Soderberg 1.96 3–3 Rebecca Schill / Jack Poynter 1.87 4–2 Sean Trudell / Jack Poynter 2.49 2–3 Henry Allgeier / Marin Soderberg 3.02 1–1 Rebecca Schill / Emily Britt 2.07 1–1	74%	8–6 (57%)	−2.3
5	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	2	7.16 school −0.11	Robert Chase / Kiana Beachy 2.42 Maggie Campbell / Clara Murphy 2.87 Maddie Murphy / Jackson Delanty 1.95	63%	7–6 (54%)	−1.1
6	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	6	6.21 school +0.42	Tyler Nash / Tate Theordorson 2.23 Cole Woodworth / Bradley Kirkpatrick 2.06 Anabelle Woodworth / Henry Roper 1.43	54%	8–5 (62%)	+1.0
7	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	5	6.19 school −0.30	Jack Baldwin / Olivia Schmitt 1.69 Peter Barnard / Stella Potter 2.84 Avery Baldwin / Jack Duffy 1.94	55%	7–6 (54%)	−0.2
8	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	7	5.47 school +0.07	Benny Wild / Lydia Frost 1.70 Elizabeth Frost / Bryan Pan 2.04 David Ren / Amy Ren 1.66 3–4 David Ren / Benjamin Luu 1.58 0–6	41%	3–10 (23%)	−2.3
9	Olympia High School Bears	9	5.12	Ella Hubbard / Hannah Fritz 2.23 Peter Kelleher / Miles Kirkbride 1.20 Sophia Hubbard / Evan Glasgow 1.61	35%	3–10 (23%)	−1.6
10	Sharon High School Varsity	10	3.89 school +0.24	Andrew Liu / Zander Lai Henry Do / Grace Kokkotos 0–9 Lila Groulx / Venya Gupta 1.27 0–9 Eric Kim / Sean Morrison 0–8	15%	0–13 (0%)	−2.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Tabor Academy	7.03	9.90	12–1	7.8	+2.87	5.5	1%
2	Greens Farms Academy	5.99	7.82	9–4	5.1	+1.84	4.0	2%
6	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	6.21	6.66	8–5	7.0	+0.45	0.2	39%
3	Archbishop Spalding	7.20	7.39	9–5	8.6	+0.20	0.0	52%
7	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	6.19	6.10	7–6	7.2	−0.09	0.0	66%
5	Norfolk Collegiate School	7.16	6.63	7–6	8.1	−0.53	0.3	84%
9	Olympia High School	5.12	4.19	3–10	4.6	−0.93	0.8	91%
4	Norfolk Academy	7.86	6.83	8–6	10.3	−1.03	1.4	96%
8	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	5.47	4.16	3–10	5.3	−1.31	1.6	97%
10	Sharon High School	3.89	0.89	0–13	2.0	≤−3.00	2.8	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Parker Herman	Archbishop Spalding	2.16	4.37	8–1	5.6	+2.22	2.6	8%
Ava Stevens	Greens Farms Academy	1.12	3.14	8–3	4.5	+2.02	4.0	2%
Anabelle Woodworth	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	1.43	1.88	8–5	7.0	+0.45	0.2	39%
Avery Baldwin	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	1.94	1.85	7–6	7.2	−0.09	0.0	66%
Maggie Campbell	Norfolk Collegiate School	2.87	2.34	7–6	8.1	−0.53	0.3	84%
Benny Wild	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	1.70	0.39	3–10	5.3	−1.31	1.6	97%
David Ren	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	1.66	0.34	3–10	5.3	−1.31	1.6	97%
Ava Farley	Archbishop Spalding	1.97	-0.69	1–4	2.9	−2.66	2.6	99%
Henry Do	Sharon High School	1.31	-1.69	0–9	1.3	≤−3.00	1.8	>99%
Andrew Liu	Sharon High School	1.24	-1.76	0–13	2.0	≤−3.00	2.8	>99%
Lila Groulx	Sharon High School	1.27	-1.73	0–9	1.4	≤−3.00	2.0	>99%
Eric Kim	Sharon High School	0.55	-2.45	0–8	1.2	≤−3.00	1.8	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-6
2		Wolfpack	1-4-5	def.		Falcons	2-3-6
3		Dragons	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
4		Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.		Bears	3-4-5
5		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Maroons	3-4-5
6		Seawolves	2-3-4	def.		Wolfpack	1-5-6
7		Cavaliers	1-3-5	def.		Varsity	2-4-6
8		Falcons	1-3-4	def.		Bears	2-5-6
9		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Oaks	3-4-5
10		Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.		Maroons	1-5-6
11		Wolfpack	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
12		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Bears	4-5-6
13		Oaks	1-2-4	def.		Cavaliers	3-5-6
14		Falcons	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-6
15		Dragons	2-3-4	def.		Maroons	1-5-6
16		Bears	2-3-5	def.		Varsity	1-4-6
17		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Wolfpack	3-4-5
18		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-6
19		Cavaliers	1-2-4	def.		Dragons	3-5-6
20		Falcons	1-2-5	def.		Maroons	3-4-6
21		Oaks	1-2-4	def.		Bears	3-5-6
22		Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
23		Dragons	2-3-4	def.		Wolfpack	1-5-6
24		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Falcons	3-4-6
25		Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.		Maroons	3-4-6
26		Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.		Oaks	2-5-6
27		Dragons	2-3-4	def.		Bears	1-5-6
28		Falcons	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
29		Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.		Wolfpack	4-5-6
30		Seawolves	1-3-4	def.		Maroons	2-5-6
31		Dragons	2-3-4	def.		Bulldogs	1-5-6
32		Oaks	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
33		Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.		Bears	3-4-6
34		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
35		Wolfpack	2-3-5	def.		Maroons	1-4-6
36		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Falcons	3-4-5
37		Cavaliers	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-6
38		Seawolves	1-2-6	def.		Oaks	3-4-5
39		Wolfpack	1-2-6	def.		Bears	3-4-5
40		Maroons	1-2-5	def.		Varsity	3-4-6
41		Cavaliers	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
42		Seawolves	1-3-4	def.		Dragons	2-5-6
43		Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.		Wolfpack	3-4-5
44		Oaks	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
45		Maroons	1-3-5	def.		Bears	2-4-6
46		Wolfpack	2-3-4	def.		Bears	1-5-6
47		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Maroons	3-5-6
48		Wolfpack	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
49		Falcons	1-2-3	def.		Bears	4-5-6
50		Wolfpack	1-3-4	def.		Maroons	2-5-6
51		Bears	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
52		Falcons	1-3-5	def.		Wolfpack	2-4-6
53		Maroons	1-3-5	def.		Varsity	2-4-6
54		Bears	1-3-6	def.		Maroons	2-4-5
55		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
56		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Oaks	4-5-6
57		Cavaliers	2-3-5	def.		Dragons	1-4-6
58		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
59		Oaks	1-4-5	def.		Cavaliers	2-3-6
60		Dragons	2-3-5	def.		Seawolves	1-4-6
61		Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
62		Seawolves	1-2-4	def.		Cavaliers	3-5-6
63		Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.		Dragons	3-4-6
64		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Oaks	3-4-5
65		Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.		Cavaliers	3-4-6
66		Cavaliers	2-3-4	def.		Bulldogs	1-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Jonnie Ciffolillo '23 Sophia Peck '22 Wyatt Bischoff '23	Carter Riggs '22 Jack Schneider '25 Elizabeth Elkinson '23
	Greens Farms Academy	Dragons	Ava Stevens '24 Griffin Gigliotti '22 Harrison Stevens '22 Katherine Mcnamara '22	Andrew Wagner '22 Max Laferriere '23 Whitney Burton '25 Ava Stevens '24 Hadley Salem '25
	Archbishop Spalding	Cavaliers	Ava Farley '22 Hugh Carty '23 Owen Macwilliams '24 Parker Herman '24	Taylor Collison '24 Christina Pierce '25 Madeline Washburn '23 Ava Farley '22
	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	Henry Allgeier '23 Rebecca Schill '23 Sean Trudell '24	Emily Britt '23 Marin Soderberg '24 Jack Poynter '25 Sabrina Casagrande '25
	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Maddie Murphy '25 Maggie Campbell '22 Robert Chase '22	Jackson Delanty '23 Clara Murphy '23 Kiana Beachy '24
	Fairfield Ludlowe High School	Falcons	Anabelle Woodworth '24 Cole Woodworth '23 Tyler Nash '23	Henry Roper '23 Bradley Kirkpatrick '25 Tate Theordorson '23
	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	Avery Baldwin '25 Jack Baldwin '22 Peter Barnard '23	Jack Duffy '23 Olivia Schmitt '22 Stella Potter '22
	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	Benny Wild '22 David Ren '24 Elizabeth Frost '23	Lydia Frost '25 Benjamin Luu '23 Amy Ren '23 Bryan Pan '23
	Olympia High School	Bears	Ella Hubbard '22 Peter Kelleher '22 Sophia Hubbard '24	Hannah Fritz '22 Miles Kirkbride '22 Evan Glasgow '22
	Sharon High School	Varsity	Andrew Liu '23 Eric Kim '22 Henry Do '23 Lila Groulx '22	Zander Lai '23 Sean Morrison '22 Grace Kokkotos '23 Venya Gupta '22