Fairfield Ludlowe High School '22
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.43 (fleet 3.86) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 26–15 (63%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 21–7 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 5–8 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (41 matches) the record is 26–15 against 21.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-21 | National Invitational Tournament (NIT) | skipper | 2.06 | 2.51 | 8–5 | 7.0 | +0.45 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2022-05-14 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.83 | 3.16 | 13–2 | 10.7 | +1.33 | 1.6 | 14% |
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.06 | 1.67 | 5–8 | 3.7 | +0.61 | 0.4 | 30% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier @ UConn Avery Point | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 1.35 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| NESSA George O'Day Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.9 | 0.60 |
| National Invitational Tournament (NIT) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 62% | — |
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Connecticut State Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.3 | 0.18 |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Oaks Qualifier | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.0 | 0.48 |
| NESSA Fall Funfes (Gleekman Regatta) | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.5 | 1.40 |
| 2019 NESSA NKBI Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 6 | 3.7 | — |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.4 | 0.18 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 38% | — |
| Connecticut States | Skipper | B | 2 | 6.5 | 0.97 |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | A | 3 | 7.7 | 1.10 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Cole Woodworth |  University of Pennsylvania |
'26 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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