O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Brunswick School Brunswick School Bruins 20 20 40
2 The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 27 30 57
3 Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Gator 45 35 80
4 Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Varsity 50 37 87
5 Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 29 62 91
6 Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 51 49 100
7 Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 65 35 100
8 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 58 64 122
9 Staples High School Staples High School Varsity 80 MRP 93 MRP 173 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Brunswick School Brunswick School Bruins 1 1 1 2 8 3 1 1 2 20 William Michels '21 [1-9]
Alex Ohls '24 [1-6]
William Michels '21 [7-9]
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 2 7 5 1 1 2 3 2 4 27 Christopher Lukens '19
Gwyneth Howell '20
Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 3 2 2 7 4 1 2 5 3 29 Tommy Styron '20
Tagan Farrell '20
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Gator 7 3 9 3 3 5 7 7 1 45 Sofia Debs '24
Sofia Debs '24
Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Varsity 9 4 4 8 5 7 5 3 5 50 Scott Yenor '20
Griffin Gigliotti '22
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 4 5 6 6 7 4 6 4 9 51 Jamie Paul '20 [1-8]
Declan O'Donnell '20 [9]
Kevin Shanahan '23 [1-8]
Will Donovan '21 [9]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 5 9 7 4 6 6 4 9 8 58 Cole Woodworth '23
Jack Wallace '19
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 6 6 8 5 9 9 8 8 6 65 Aidan Iaconis '21 [1-3, 7-9]
Take Kawashima '22 [4-6]
Demi Janis '20 [1-3]
Lilly Bjerke '21 [4-8]
Lily Ornstein '22 [9]
Staples High School Staples High School Varsity 8 8 3 9 2 8 9 6 7 80 MRP No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Brunswick School Brunswick School Bruins 2 3 2 6 1 2 1 2 1 20 Leyton Borcherding '21
Greer Sconzo '23
The Hotchkiss School The Hotchkiss School Bearcats 8 7 1 3 2 1 3 3 2 30 John Eastman '20 [1-2]
Oliver Hurwitz '21 [3-9]
Nicole Morikawa '21 [1-2]
Elizabeth Koobatian '19 [3-9]
Greenwich Academy Greenwich Academy Gator 3 4 3 1 4 3 6 4 7 35 Harned Ellie '22
Pedersen Naomi '21
Greenwich High School Greenwich High School Cardinals 4 2 5 2 6 5 2 5 4 35 Chris Tella '21 [1-9]
Lily Ornstein '22 [1-6]
Demi Janis '20 [7-9]
Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Varsity 5 5 4 7 3 4 5 1 3 37 Sofia Segalla '21
Katherine Mcnamara '22
Fairfield Prep Fairfield Prep Jesuits 1 6 6 4 7 7 4 6 8 49 Chase Reynolds '20
Garrett Cutler '20
Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 7 1 9 5 9 9 8 8 6 62 Joseph Coyne '19 [1-4, 7-9]
Madeline Simms '19 [5-6]
Will Stork '22 [1-4, 7-9]
Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 6 8 8 8 5 6 7 7 9 64 Elizabeth Cutler '20
Eloise Brenner '29
Staples High School Staples High School Varsity 9 9 7 9 8 8 9 9 5 93 MRP No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.110+0.11
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Brunswick SchoolBrunswick School Bruins112233445
Choate Rosemary HallChoate Rosemary Hall Varsity223344556
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons334455667
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Jesuits445566778
Greens Farms AcademyGreens Farms Academy Varsity556677889
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinals778899112
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Gator667788991
Staples High SchoolStaples High School Varsity889911223
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats991122334

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Brunswick SchoolBrunswick School Bruins131314141515161617
Choate Rosemary HallChoate Rosemary Hall Varsity141415151616171718
Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons151516161717181819
Fairfield PrepFairfield Prep Jesuits161617171818191920
Greens Farms AcademyGreens Farms Academy Varsity171718181919202021
Greenwich High SchoolGreenwich High School Cardinals191920202121131314
Greenwich AcademyGreenwich Academy Gator181819192020212113
Staples High SchoolStaples High School Varsity202021211313141415
The Hotchkiss SchoolThe Hotchkiss School Bearcats212113131414151516

Conditions — 04/13/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 73°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.5 kn
avg  ·  max 13.0 kn
Gusts to 22.9 kn
From SSE (155°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover93% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1016.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Brunswick/Greenwich Academy/Greenwich: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.02 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brunswick/Greenwich Academy/Greenwich by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Brunswick/Greenwich Academy/Greenwich: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →