Choate Rosemary Hall '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.84 (fleet 1.35) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–3 (77%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 10–3 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (13 matches) the record is 10–3 against 7.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.2). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 0.87 | 2.00 | 10–3 | 7.8 | +1.13 | 1.3 | 15% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.3 | 0.10 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 13 | 77% | — |
| Connecticut States | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.5 | 4.37 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich, CT | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.2 | 0.35 |
| Connecticut States | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.4 | 1.42 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Newport, RI | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.8 | 0.83 |
| Connecticut State Championships | Skipper | A | 6 | 11.0 | 0.31 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich, CT | Skipper | A | 4 | 10.0 | -0.15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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