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NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy)

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Greens Farms Academy Greens Farms Academy Dragons 12–1
2 Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 10–3
3 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 5–8
4 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 5–8
5 Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders 3–4
6 Boston College High School Boston College High School Eagles 3–4
7 St. Johns Prep St. Johns Prep Varsity 2–5
8 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 0–7

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 6,425 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 30 of 40 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.529 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.28 ± 0.42: a typical event, more orderly than 61% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Greens Farms Academy
Dragons		14.86Sofia Segalla / Ryan Audemard
Katherine Mcnamara / Andrew Audemard
Scott Yenor / Griffin Gigliotti		74%12–1 (92%)+2.4
2Choate Rosemary Hall
Varsity		34.13Tommy Styron / Tagan Farrell
Joseph Coyne / Holden Zerega
Will Stork / Julia Stork 6–1
Will Stork / Lulu Louchheim 2–2
Madeline Simms / Lulu Louchheim 2–0		60%10–3 (77%)+2.2
3Fairfield Ludlowe High School
Falcons		82.60Cole Woodworth / Eloise Brenner
Felix Nizet / Ryan Kilcoyne
Elizabeth Cutler / Alex Jaber		29%5–8 (38%)+1.3
4Portland High School
Bulldogs		43.42
school −0.24		Hal Clews / Lucy Kilbreth 1.12
Eva Ermlich / Jondall Norris
Gavin Sanborn / Alice Thompson		46%5–8 (38%)−0.9
5Barnstable HS
Raiders		24.59
school +0.23		Taylor Eastman / Caroline Lewis 1.80
Margo Silliman / Lilly Mathieu 1.34
John Cilizzi / Chuck Nystrom 1.11 3–3
Joshua Hersey / Chuck Nystrom 1.56 0–1		71%3–4 (43%)−1.9
6Boston College High School
Eagles		53.12
school +0.20		Porter Bell / Creamer Zachary
Dromey Patrick / Devine Shea
Graziano Nick / Andrew Engel 1.44 3–1
Buckeridge Tyler / Andrew Engel 0–2
Graziano Nick / Buckeridge Tyler 1.69 0–1		43%3–4 (43%)+0.0
7St. Johns Prep
Varsity		72.43Wilson Kaznoski / Enrique Ruiz
George Lockwood / Luke Plecinoga
Renato Korzinek / Michael Cunniff 1–2
Michael Cunniff / Charlie Meir 1–2
Renato Korzinek / Charlie Meir 0–1		30%2–5 (29%)−0.1
8Marthas Vineyard RHS
Vineyarders		63.03
school −0.17		Zach Ward / Trent Bilodeau 1.09
Caleb Burt / Ingrid Moore
Miles Wolff / Henry Kyburg Abbott 1.59		41%0–7 (0%)−2.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Greens Farms Academy4.866.8112–19.6+1.962.310%
2Choate Rosemary Hall4.135.2610–37.8+1.131.315%
3Fairfield Ludlowe High School2.603.225–83.7+0.610.430%
6Boston College High School3.123.133–43.0+0.010.064%
7St. Johns Prep2.432.312–52.1−0.130.069%
4Portland High School3.422.995–85.9−0.430.280%
5Barnstable HS4.593.003–44.9−1.591.898%
8Marthas Vineyard RHS3.030.030–72.9≤−3.005.0>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Scott YenorGreens Farms Academy0.902.8612–19.6+1.962.310%
Tommy StyronChoate Rosemary Hall1.802.9310–37.8+1.131.315%
Joseph CoyneChoate Rosemary Hall0.872.0010–37.8+1.131.315%
Graziano NickBoston College High School1.442.373–22.2+0.930.438%
Will StorkChoate Rosemary Hall1.192.078–36.5+0.890.726%
Dromey PatrickBoston College High School0.570.583–43.0+0.010.064%
John CilizziBarnstable HS1.11-0.273–34.4−1.381.196%
Zach WardMarthas Vineyard RHS1.09-1.910–72.9≤−3.005.0>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Greens Farms AcademyChoate Rosemary Hall62%
12Boston College High SchoolSt. Johns Prep69%
13Barnstable HSMarthas Vineyard RHS77%
14Portland High SchoolFairfield Ludlowe High School70%
15Greens Farms AcademyBoston College High School74%
16Choate Rosemary HallBarnstable HS40%upset
17St. Johns PrepFairfield Ludlowe High School50%
18Portland High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS56%
19Barnstable HSBoston College High School68%
110Greens Farms AcademyFairfield Ludlowe High School85%
111Choate Rosemary HallMarthas Vineyard RHS61%
112Portland High SchoolSt. Johns Prep67%
113Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolBarnstable HS17%upset
114Boston College High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS56%
115Greens Farms AcademySt. Johns Prep86%
116Choate Rosemary HallPortland High School64%
117Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolMarthas Vineyard RHS40%upset
118Barnstable HSSt. Johns Prep83%
119Boston College High SchoolChoate Rosemary Hall36%upset
120Greens Farms AcademyPortland High School75%
121St. Johns PrepMarthas Vineyard RHS39%upset
122Choate Rosemary HallFairfield Ludlowe High School78%
123Greens Farms AcademyBarnstable HS48%upset
124Portland High SchoolBoston College High School67%
125Choate Rosemary HallSt. Johns Prep71%
126Greens Farms AcademyMarthas Vineyard RHS80%
127Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolBoston College High School53%
128Portland High SchoolBarnstable HS29%upset
229Choate Rosemary HallPortland High School66%
230Greens Farms AcademyFairfield Ludlowe High School85%
231Choate Rosemary HallFairfield Ludlowe High School78%
232Greens Farms AcademyPortland High School76%
233Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolPortland High School36%upset
234Greens Farms AcademyChoate Rosemary Hall62%
335Choate Rosemary HallPortland High School66%
336Greens Farms AcademyFairfield Ludlowe High School85%
337Choate Rosemary HallFairfield Ludlowe High School78%
338Greens Farms AcademyPortland High School77%
339Fairfield Ludlowe High SchoolPortland High School36%upset
340Choate Rosemary HallGreens Farms Academy38%upset
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-2-4 def. Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 3-5-6
2 Boston College High School Eagles 1-2-4 def. St. Johns Prep Varsity 3-5-6
3 Barnstable HS Raiders 2-3-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1-5-6
4 Portland High School Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 3-4-5
5 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 2-3-4 def. Boston College High School Eagles 1-5-6
6 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 2-3-4 def. Barnstable HS Raiders 1-5-6
7 St. Johns Prep Varsity 1-2-5 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 3-4-6
8 Portland High School Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-5-6
9 Barnstable HS Raiders 1-2-5 def. Boston College High School Eagles 3-4-6
10 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-2-4 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 3-5-6
11 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 2-3-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1-5-6
12 Portland High School Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. St. Johns Prep Varsity 3-4-6
13 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 2-3-4 def. Barnstable HS Raiders 1-5-6
14 Boston College High School Eagles 1-3-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2-5-6
15 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 2-3-4 def. St. Johns Prep Varsity 1-5-6
16 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 1-3-5 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 2-4-6
17 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-4-5 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 2-3-6
18 Barnstable HS Raiders 1-2-6 def. St. Johns Prep Varsity 3-4-5
19 Boston College High School Eagles 1-2-4 def. Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 3-5-6
20 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-2-5 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-4-6
21 St. Johns Prep Varsity 1-2-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-5-6
22 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 1-2-4 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 3-5-6
23 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-3-4 def. Barnstable HS Raiders 2-5-6
24 Portland High School Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Boston College High School Eagles 3-5-6
25 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 1-2-5 def. St. Johns Prep Varsity 3-4-6
26 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-2-4 def. Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 3-5-6
27 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-4 def. Boston College High School Eagles 3-5-6
28 Portland High School Bulldogs 1-2-5 def. Barnstable HS Raiders 3-4-6
29 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 1-2-4 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-5-6
30 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-3-4 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 2-5-6
31 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 1-2-4 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 3-5-6
32 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-2-4 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-5-6
33 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 1-2-5 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-4-6
34 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-2-4 def. Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 3-5-6
35 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 1-2-5 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 3-4-6
36 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-2-3 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 4-5-6
37 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 1-2-3 def. Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 4-5-6
38 Greens Farms Academy Dragons 1-2-3 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 4-5-6
39 Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons 2-3-5 def. Portland High School Bulldogs 1-4-6
40 Choate Rosemary Hall Varsity 1-2-5 def. Greens Farms Academy Dragons 3-4-6

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →