Marthas Vineyard RHS '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.92 (fleet 1.50) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–13 (32%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 2 | 5–8 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (19 matches) the record is 6–13 against 9.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.09 | -1.91 | 0–7 | 2.9 | ≤−3.00 | 5.0 | >99% |
| 2019-05-11 | Cape & Islands Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.02 | 2.24 | 5–1 | 4.1 | +1.22 | 0.6 | 37% |
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.05 | -0.57 | 1–5 | 2.4 | −1.62 | 1.2 | 96% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Cape & Islands Team Racing Champs | Skipper | TR | 9 | 89% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Great Oaks Qualifier | Skipper | A | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| NESSA Fall Funfes (Gleekman Regatta) | Skipper | A | 4 | 8.5 | 0.77 |
| Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 6.5 | 0.60 |
| 2019 Allstate Sugar Bowl Great Oaks Regatta GOLD | Skipper | A | 3 | 11.0 | -0.75 |
| 2019 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.1 | -0.25 |
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 7 | 0% | — |
| Cape & Islands Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.7 | 0.65 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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