Cape & Islands Team Racing Championship

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 6,411 team race matches sailed before 2019-05-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 13 matches (92%) with a log-loss of 0.293 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.80 ± 0.60: an orderly event, more orderly than 96% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	2	3.78 school −0.24	Joe Serpa / Abigail Hammerlund 1.49 Zach Ward / Trent Bilodeau 1.02 Miles Wolff / Henry Kyburg Abbott	69%	5–1 (83%)	+0.9
2	Dartmouth High School Indians	1	4.14 school +0.13	Gracie Woodcock / Sadie Thomas 1.10 Charlie Fairfax / Jack Sullivan Thomas Walker / Lucy Tibbals 1.72	76%	5–1 (83%)	+0.5
4	Bishop Stang High Spartans	3	2.41 school +0.07	Clinton Hegarty / Sophia Hirschmann 1.46 John Egger / Amber Rousseau Ben Markert / Simone Johnson 0.23	39%	2–4 (33%)	−0.3
5	St. John Paul II School Varsity	4	1.39	Will Delman / Henry Bailey Sophia Mcmanus / Olivia Michaud Jacob Garrett / Justin Keyes	34%	1–3 (25%)	−0.4
7	Sandwich Middle High School Varsity	5	0.62	Kari Gould / Layla Sastry 0–3 Thomas Greeley / Ali Senior 0–2 Olivia Demmin / Justin Higgins 0–2 Olivia Demmin / Kathleen Duryea 0–1 Thomas Greeley / Patricia Mcginty 0–1 Tiernan O'Kane / Ethan Martin 0–1 Olivia Demmin / Patricia Mcginty 0–1 Thomas Greeley / Emily Torok 0–1	16%	0–4 (0%)	−0.6

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	3.78	5.00	5–1	4.1	+1.22	0.6	37%
2	Dartmouth High School Indians	4.14	4.80	5–1	4.5	+0.67	0.2	55%
4	Bishop Stang High Spartans	2.41	2.01	2–4	2.3	−0.40	0.1	79%
5	St. John Paul II School Varsity	1.39	0.58	1–3	1.4	−0.81	0.2	89%
7	Sandwich Middle High School Varsity	0.62	-2.38	0–4	0.6	≤−3.00	0.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Zach Ward	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.02	2.24	5–1	4.1	+1.22	0.6	37%
Gracie Woodcock	Dartmouth High School	1.10	1.77	5–1	4.5	+0.67	0.2	55%
Ben Markert	Bishop Stang High	0.23	-0.18	2–4	2.3	−0.40	0.1	79%
Will Delman	St. John Paul II School	0.40	-0.41	1–3	1.4	−0.81	0.2	89%
Sophia Mcmanus	St. John Paul II School	0.40	-0.41	1–3	1.4	−0.81	0.2	89%
Jacob Garrett	St. John Paul II School	0.40	-0.41	1–3	1.4	−0.81	0.2	89%
Kari Gould	Sandwich Middle High School	0.84	-2.16	0–3	0.4	≤−3.00	0.6	>99%
Olivia Demmin	Sandwich Middle High School	0.05	-2.95	0–4	0.6	≤−3.00	0.9	>99%
Thomas Greeley	Sandwich Middle High School	-0.12	-3.12	0–4	0.6	≤−3.00	0.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Vineyarders	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
2		Spartans	1-3-5	def.		Nantucket Whalers	2-4-6
3		Indians	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
4		Raiders 1	1-2-3	def.		Raiders 2	4-5-6
5		Nantucket Whalers	1-2-6	def.		Varsity	3-4-5
6		Indians	1-3-5	def.		Vineyarders	2-4-6
7		Spartans	1-2-3	def.		Raiders 2	4-5-6
8		Raiders 1	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
9		Nantucket Whalers	1-2-4	def.		Indians	3-5-6
10		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Raiders 2	4-5-6
11		Vineyarders	1-2-3	def.		Varsity	4-5-6
12		Spartans	1-2-3	def.		Raiders 1	4-5-6
13		Indians	1-2-3	def.		Raiders 2	4-5-6
14		Nantucket Whalers	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
15		Spartans	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6
16		Vineyarders	1-2-3	def.		Raiders 1	4-5-6
17		Varsity	1-2-3	def.		Raiders 2	4-5-6
18		Indians	1-3-5	def.		Spartans	2-4-6
19		Vineyarders	1-2-5	def.		Nantucket Whalers	3-4-6
20		Varsity	1-2-5	def.		Raiders 1	3-4-6
21		Spartans	1-3-4	def.		Varsity	2-5-6
22		Vineyarders	1-2-3	def.		Raiders 2	4-5-6
23		Indians	1-2-4	def.		Varsity	3-5-6
24		Nantucket Whalers	1-2-5	def.		Raiders 1	3-4-6
25		Vineyarders	1-2-6	def.		Spartans	3-4-5
26		Varsity	2-3-4	def.		Varsity	1-5-6
27		Nantucket Whalers	1-2-6	def.		Raiders 2	3-4-5
28		Indians	1-2-3	def.		Raiders 1	4-5-6
29		Vineyarders	1-4-5	def.		Indians	2-3-6
30		Nantucket Whalers	2-3-4	def.		Spartans	1-5-6
31		Vineyarders	1-2-4	def.		Spartans	3-5-6
32		Indians	2-3-4	def.		Nantucket Whalers	1-5-6
33		Vineyarders	1-2-3	def.		Nantucket Whalers	4-5-6
34		Indians	1-2-3	def.		Spartans	4-5-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	Joe Serpa '20 Miles Wolff '22 Zach Ward '21	Abigail Hammerlund '20 Henry Kyburg Abbott '23 Trent Bilodeau '21
	Dartmouth High School	Indians	Charlie Fairfax '22 Gracie Woodcock '19 Thomas Walker '20	Jack Sullivan '20 Sadie Thomas '19 Lucy Tibbals '19
	Bishop Stang High	Spartans	Ben Markert '19 Clinton Hegarty '19 John Egger '19	Simone Johnson '20 Sophia Hirschmann '19 Amber Rousseau '19
	St. John Paul II School	Varsity	Jacob Garrett '20 Sophia Mcmanus '22 Will Delman '19	Justin Keyes '20 Olivia Michaud '19 Henry Bailey '20
	Sandwich Middle High School	Varsity	Kari Gould '19 Olivia Demmin '21 Thomas Greeley '19 Tiernan O'Kane '22	Layla Sastry '19 Patricia Mcginty '19 Justin Higgins '20 Kathleen Duryea '20 Emily Torok '19 Ali Senior '20 Ethan Martin '23