Bishop Stang High '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.63 (fleet 2.64) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–12 (33%) as crew 6–8 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 4–8 | — |
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 6–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 12–20 against 9.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-11 | Cape & Islands Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.46 | 1.05 | 2–4 | 2.3 | −0.40 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2018-04-07 | Ridge White Classic | skipper | 1.04 | 1.46 | 4–8 | 3.2 | +0.42 | 0.2 | 42% |
| 2016-05-28 | National Invitational Tournament | crew | 1.41 | 2.29 | 6–8 | 4.0 | +0.89 | 1.0 | 18% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| FIGAWI High school Invitational | Skipper | A | 11 | 4.6 | 1.24 |
| Cape & Islands Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Cape and Islands Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.7 | 0.96 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Ridge White Classic | Skipper | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| O'Day Qualifier - Newport, RI | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.7 | 0.23 |
| Cape & Islands Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 2.13 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NKBI Qualifier Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 3.0 | — |
| Lawrence A. White Invitational | Crew | B | 12 | 12.4 | — |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| National Invitational Tournament | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Clinton Hegarty |  Northeastern University |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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