| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | 11–1 |
| 2 |  |
Sharon High School | Eagles | 7–5 |
| 3 |  |
Belmont Hill School | Varsity | 7–5 |
| 4 |  |
Bishop Stang High | Spartans | 4–8 |
| 5 |  |
Portsmouth High School RI | Partriots | 1–11 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,181 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 22 of 30 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.510 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.12 ± 0.46: a typical event, more orderly than 49% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Academy Seawolves | 1 | 5.90 school +0.30, home +0.05 | Cj Mckenna / Cynthia Huang 2.12 Thad Lettsome / Harper Mckerrow Ella Withington / Jack Murray 5–1 Jack Howard / Michael Collins 1.85 6–0 | 82% | 11–1 (92%) | +1.2 |
| 2 | Sharon High School Eagles | 4 | 3.76 | Colin Snow / Alissa Chen 4–5 Arthur Rabinovich / Lynn Fu 7–2 Ben Xu / Merrick Tian 7–2 Kevin Li / Sam Edson 3–0 Kevin Li / Lynn Fu 0–3 Ben Xu / Sam Edson 0–3 | 40% | 7–5 (58%) | +2.2 |
| 3 | Belmont Hill School Varsity | 2 | 4.76 | Michael Wade / Peter Wade Ryan Goldstein / Jack Mackey Jack Murphy / Michael Salvatore | 62% | 7–5 (58%) | −0.4 |
| 4 | Bishop Stang High Spartans | 5 | 3.19 | Santiago Hirschmann / Amber Rousseau 1.52 Clinton Hegarty / Edward Sparrow Ben Markert / Joseph Russo | 27% | 4–8 (33%) | +0.8 |
| 5 | Portsmouth High School RI Partriots | 3 | 3.75 | Parker Colantuono / Sophia Hacket Joe Gallagher / Katie Lee Matt Bardonaro / Sarah Wilme | 40% | 1–11 (8%) | −3.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Academy | 5.90 | 7.10 | 11–1 | 9.8 | +1.20 | 0.7 | 32% |
| 2 | Sharon High School | 3.76 | 4.94 | 7–5 | 4.8 | +1.17 | 1.5 | 13% |
| 4 | Bishop Stang High | 3.19 | 3.60 | 4–8 | 3.2 | +0.42 | 0.2 | 42% |
| 3 | Belmont Hill School | 4.76 | 4.57 | 7–5 | 7.4 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 72% |
| 5 | Portsmouth High School RI | 3.75 | 1.01 | 1–11 | 4.8 | −2.74 | 4.8 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Rabinovich | Sharon High School | 1.40 | 3.16 | 7–2 | 4.4 | +1.76 | 2.4 | 7% |
| Kevin Li | Sharon High School | 1.00 | 2.26 | 3–3 | 1.9 | +1.26 | 0.8 | 27% |
| Ben Xu | Sharon High School | 1.39 | 2.56 | 7–5 | 4.8 | +1.17 | 1.5 | 13% |
| Ben Markert | Bishop Stang High | 0.42 | 0.84 | 4–8 | 3.2 | +0.42 | 0.2 | 42% |
| Michael Wade | Belmont Hill School | 0.90 | 0.70 | 7–5 | 7.4 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Joe Gallagher | Portsmouth High School RI | 1.27 | -1.46 | 1–11 | 4.8 | −2.74 | 4.8 | >99% |
| Matt Bardonaro | Portsmouth High School RI | 0.57 | -2.17 | 1–11 | 4.8 | −2.74 | 4.8 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 1-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Partriots | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Partriots | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Seawolves | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Eagles | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Partriots | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Seawolves | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Eagles | 2-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Partriots | 2-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Partriots | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Partriots | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Eagles | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seawolves | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Partriots | 2-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Spartans | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Seawolves | 1-4-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Partriots | 2-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-5 |
| 22 | |
Seawolves | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Partriots | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Eagles | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Seawolves | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Spartans | 2-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Eagles | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Partriots | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Partriots | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Seawolves | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Eagles | 3-4-5 |
| 29 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Partriots | 3-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Eagles | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Spartans | 3-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Tabor Academy | Seawolves | Cj Mckenna '18 Ella Withington '18 Jack Howard '19 Thad Lettsome '20 |
Cynthia Huang '18 Jack Murray '18 Michael Collins '18 Harper Mckerrow '19 |
|
Sharon High School | Eagles | Arthur Rabinovich '18 Ben Xu '18 Colin Snow '18 Kevin Li '18 |
Lynn Fu '18 Merrick Tian '18 Sam Edson '18 Alissa Chen '18 |
|
Belmont Hill School | Varsity | Jack Murphy '18 Michael Wade '19 Ryan Goldstein '18 |
Michael Salvatore '21 Peter Wade '19 Jack Mackey '21 |
|
Bishop Stang High | Spartans | Ben Markert '19 Clinton Hegarty '19 Santiago Hirschmann '18 |
Joseph Russo '18 Edward Sparrow '18 Amber Rousseau '19 |
|
Portsmouth High School RI | Partriots | Joe Gallagher '20 Matt Bardonaro '19 Parker Colantuono '18 |
Katie Lee '19 Sarah Wilme '19 Sophia Hacket '21 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
